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  #166  
Old 05-28-2019, 09:38 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
Keith Law came out with a mock draft today. He had the top 3 going Rutschman/Witt/Vaughn, but most notable was what he said about the Orioles pick: "This isn't a lock." He says the Orioles might be willing to take Vaughn and sign him under slot, since they pick 4 times in the top 80.

This is most likely the Orioles trying to get some leverage in negotiations with Rutschman, but if not....
And this is my one hope with the Abrams crap... If the Sox make Vaughn think he is falling, he cuts a bigger deal at 1, and word is Witt is going 2 no matter who goes one... I feel like the Avengers - and there is 1 situation we win lol
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  #167  
Old 05-28-2019, 10:01 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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RE: Abrams, IIRC Jim Callis was on the Sox Machine podcast last week, and said one scout he talked with compared Abrams to Rickey Henderson. Does that ease any concerns about drafting him?

My opinion all along is that I trust that Hostetler and the Sox scouts know more about these guys than I or anyone else on this board does. I've read a few articles and watched a few videos, but I'll leave it up to the people who do this for a living to make the call, and it would be pretty arrogant of me to second-guess them immediately following the pick. The second-guessing can come a few years from now when we see how it all plays out.

It would be pretty sweet though if Rutschman fell to #3.
  #168  
Old 05-28-2019, 10:29 PM
JermaineDye05 JermaineDye05 is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
I trust that Hostetler and the Sox scouts know more about these guys than I or anyone else on this board does.
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  #169  
Old 05-28-2019, 10:52 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
RE: Abrams, IIRC Jim Callis was on the Sox Machine podcast last week, and said one scout he talked with compared Abrams to Rickey Henderson. Does that ease any concerns about drafting him?

My opinion all along is that I trust that Hostetler and the Sox scouts know more about these guys than I or anyone else on this board does. I've read a few articles and watched a few videos, but I'll leave it up to the people who do this for a living to make the call, and it would be pretty arrogant of me to second-guess them immediately following the pick. The second-guessing can come a few years from now when we see how it all plays out.

It would be pretty sweet though if Rutschman fell to #3.
It doesn't move the needle for me. I mean I pray the dude is right if we take him, but Henderson had way more power and a way way way better batting eye.

If anything it gives me concern we have a scout who believes Abrams could be Henderson level good lol
  #170  
Old 05-28-2019, 10:56 PM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
It doesn't move the needle for me. I mean I pray the dude is right if we take him, but Henderson had way more power and a way way way better batting eye.

If anything it gives me concern we have a scout who believes Abrams could be Henderson level good lol
If he's a high school player he is only 18. He hasn't even grown into his frame yet. Power may well come once he does.
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  #171  
Old 05-28-2019, 10:58 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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If he's a high school player he is only 18. He hasn't even grown into his frame yet. Power may well come once he does.
Just watch video of his swing, its soooo short, to generate any power its going to require breaking the swing apart and lengthening it, which is going to impact his second best tool to his speed - his bat on ball skills.

The problem is a poor mans Rickey Henderson is just Dee Gordon. Its like ground hog day where everyone last year was talking about Madrigal was surely going to turn those doubles to homers, except he barely is hitting doubles now. You just can't have the 4th pick and the 3rd pick the next year and walk away with 2 guys who likely don't combine for 20 homers in a year.

I guess my point ultimately is not that CJ Abrams is not good, but that he is not good enough to be picked 3rd. With the 3rd pick you want a ceiling that could be an MVP. Vaughn does not have the glove but he could be Kris Bryant good with the stick.
  #172  
Old 05-28-2019, 11:14 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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MLB Pipeline grades Abrams as a 60 overall prospect. That would place him at worst 23rd in the top 100 prospect list. That's incredibly high. Rutschman, Witt, and Vaughn are 60's as well. Not sure I would agree that he is currently a better prospect than the likes of Joey Bart and Yordan Alvarez, but they might be thinking he'll be an Ozzie Albies type guy moving forward. My problem is that a lot of his value and high overall grade is in his elite speed, which is not as important as hitting, power and defensive tools.

Abrams is also very similar to Nick Gordon (Twins) entering the draft, not a surprise that he is compared to Nick's brother, Dee Gordon. This would be an example of how this pick could go wrong. Albies if it goes right.

Last edited by ChiSoxNationPres; 05-28-2019 at 11:53 PM.
  #173  
Old 05-28-2019, 11:31 PM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Its like ground hog day where everyone last year was talking about Madrigal was surely going to turn those doubles to homers, except he barely is hitting doubles now.
While I am also skeptical of Madrigal developing much more than 10 HR power, the bolded statement is not accurate as Madrigal has 10 doubles this season in 43 games.
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  #174  
Old 05-29-2019, 04:04 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
Well, I don't know if that is really their total and complete Ceiling or more like a likely projection.

Sure, Abrams could add some strength, fix his swing and end up with 50 grade power and be a real .850-.900 ops guy, but the likelyhood is not high. Same thing could have been said for Madrigal, sure, the kid might figure out how to turn some doubles into homers and be the next Ian Kinsler, but it isn't likely.
Why regarding Madrigal? Coming into this season Tommy La Stella had four seasons under his belt. Four partial seasons. Approximately eight hundred and twenty-eight ABs. He hit ten home runs in those eight hundred and twenty-eight ABs.

La Stella exceeded his career total this year alone in one hundred and fifty-nine ABs. Derek Deitrich's last six ABs are HRs.

When the ball is this live who can put a number on any player's total?
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  #175  
Old 05-29-2019, 07:01 AM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
While I am also skeptical of Madrigal developing much more than 10 HR power, the bolded statement is not accurate as Madrigal has 10 doubles this season in 43 games.
You are correct, 3 in the last 10 games I missed. In my mind I still had him at 7. I guess more my point was thus far he’s still showing a low .700 ops
  #176  
Old 05-29-2019, 07:35 AM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
It doesn't move the needle for me. I mean I pray the dude is right if we take him, but Henderson had way more power and a way way way better batting eye.

If anything it gives me concern we have a scout who believes Abrams could be Henderson level good lol
It wasn’t a Sox scout that made the comp (the team wasn’t mentioned)
  #177  
Old 05-29-2019, 08:00 AM
blurry blurry is offline
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Henderson was probably the best leadoff hitter who has ever played. That's a total pie in the sky comparison from that scout. That feels 100% like misdirection their part.
  #178  
Old 05-29-2019, 09:54 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
You are correct, 3 in the last 10 games I missed. In my mind I still had him at 7. I guess more my point was thus far he’s still showing a low .700 ops
Yeah, I'm skeptical if he'll ever be a guy who has an .800 OPS or even in that neighborhood. It will come down to whether or not a slash line similar to a Dee Gordon or David Eckstein in their prime is acceptable. So something like:
.300/.360/.390

That kind of line usually leads to 4 or 5 WAR when there are average/above average defensive metrics.
  #179  
Old 05-29-2019, 10:35 AM
Harry Chappas Harry Chappas is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
Yeah, I'm skeptical if he'll ever be a guy who has an .800 OPS or even in that neighborhood. It will come down to whether or not a slash line similar to a Dee Gordon or David Eckstein in their prime is acceptable. So something like:
.300/.360/.390

That kind of line usually leads to 4 or 5 WAR when there are average/above average defensive metrics.
It's probably worth pointing out that I don't think anyone predicted he'd start turning doubles into homers. As I recall, most felt like he would hit for average, steal some bases, and play stellar 2B. He may still end up being that guy in a few years.
  #180  
Old 05-29-2019, 10:47 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by Harry Chappas View Post
It's probably worth pointing out that I don't think anyone predicted he'd start turning doubles into homers. As I recall, most felt like he would hit for average, steal some bases, and play stellar 2B. He may still end up being that guy in a few years.
But I think many of us (last year at least) were hopeful that he would develop 10- 12 HR power. I know I was, especially after watching the development of Ozzie Albies.
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