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  #61  
Old 01-14-2020, 04:35 PM
blurry blurry is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Lopez, Madrigal, Basabe, Cordero, and Fry for Arenado, Shaw, and McGee.
I'd make that deal. He'd have to go to 2B or Moncada would have to go back to 2B, but it would make the infield easily the best in all of baseball. And you'd get a terrific bat in the process.
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  #62  
Old 01-14-2020, 04:58 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Honestly, hearing the names being tossed around for Arenado makes me wonder if the White Sox can come up with an offer.

Something like Lopez, Madrigal, and Dunning may be acceptable as an alternative to that rumored Hudson, Liberatore, and O’Neill package. Plus, we would not be insisting on sending back salary, like St. Louis reportedly is by including Martinez or Carpenter in the deal. Instead, we may even be able to seal the deal by taking on some bad money, like a Fry-for-McGee swap or a Cordero-for-Shaw swap. Or just switch both, and replace Dunning with someone like Basabe, Gonzalez, Adolfo, or another pitcher.

Lopez, Madrigal, Basabe, Cordero, and Fry for Arenado, Shaw, and McGee.

It’s definitely a risk, given that Arenado may bail after only 2 years. On the flip side, the only guy that really gives me apprehension is Madrigal, and you have to give something to get something.

Considering that the Twins have done absolutely nothing this offseason, it looks like a prime opportunity to go for the kill. It may even force a wishy-washy Indians front office to **** or get off the pot regarding Lindor and Clevinger.
The Sox may have that payroll space for 2020-2021, but absolutely do not have $35mil in space for 2022-23. Zero.

I've pointed this out a few times now, and it's surprising that everyone who is complaining about where payroll is at currently on here, social media, or traditional media - don't seem to see the larger picture regarding their payroll.

There are major payroll increases to come from current contracts and arbitration players, namely: Anderson, Robert, Eloy, Moncada, Giolito, Lopez and Kopech.

Roughly, though realistically, in '22 those players will account for $55mil more than in 2020. In 2023, they will realistically account for $85mil more than 2020.

So if the Sox maintain a quality pen, RF, rotational depth, quality bench players, etc (which they will)...meaning they don't decrease much or at all from the current $125mil, they will be at $180mil in 2022 and then $210mil in 2023....

There is no room for Arenado in any way.

As for that package, while it might be in line with what is expected in return for Arenado, giving up that much pitching without getting back any SP'ing leaves the Sox with limited upside options in the future with their rotation. Put's all the eggs in the basket of Giolito, Kopech, Cease, Kuechel, Stiever, ????. The Sox are depending on their pitching to pan out to ultimately win a WS. The offense is already looking like it will be really good in the very near future. Can't sacrifice SP upside with the cost controlled guys at this point.
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  #63  
Old 01-14-2020, 06:23 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Yeah, it would be a $200+ payroll for 2022-2023, and then attrition will start taking its toll after 2023, when Moncada and Giolito go elsewhere.

Such is life when you donít have $400+, $500+, $600+ annual revenues. Once you get to the point where you can realistically compete, you need to strike swiftly and forcefully. You make a full-throttle effort to ascend to the top of the division as soon as realistically possible and worry about the inevitable decline later.
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  #64  
Old 01-14-2020, 06:42 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Yeah, it would be a $200+ payroll for 2022-2023, and then attrition will start taking its toll after 2023, when Moncada and Giolito go elsewhere.

Such is life when you donít have $400+, $500+, $600+ annual revenues. Once you get to the point where you can realistically compete, you need to strike swiftly and forcefully. You make a full-throttle effort to ascend to the top of the division as soon as realistically possible and worry about the inevitable decline later.
Just a few months ago you were trying to convince me that the Sox (Jerry) wouldn't go much higher than their previous all time high payroll of $127mil, and now you think they should go ~$240mil (Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs have never gone that high)? Stay consistent at least.
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  #65  
Old 01-14-2020, 07:24 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
The Sox may have that payroll space for 2020-2021, but absolutely do not have $35mil in space for 2022-23. Zero.

I've pointed this out a few times now, and it's surprising that everyone who is complaining about where payroll is at currently on here, social media, or traditional media - don't seem to see the larger picture regarding their payroll.

There are major payroll increases to come from current contracts and arbitration players, namely: Anderson, Robert, Eloy, Moncada, Giolito, Lopez and Kopech.

Roughly, though realistically, in '22 those players will account for $55mil more than in 2020. In 2023, they will realistically account for $85mil more than 2020.

So if the Sox maintain a quality pen, RF, rotational depth, quality bench players, etc (which they will)...meaning they don't decrease much or at all from the current $125mil, they will be at $180mil in 2022 and then $210mil in 2023....

There is no room for Arenado in any way.

As for that package, while it might be in line with what is expected in return for Arenado, giving up that much pitching without getting back any SP'ing leaves the Sox with limited upside options in the future with their rotation. Put's all the eggs in the basket of Giolito, Kopech, Cease, Kuechel, Stiever, ????. The Sox are depending on their pitching to pan out to ultimately win a WS. The offense is already looking like it will be really good in the very near future. Can't sacrifice SP upside with the cost controlled guys at this point.
I get what you are saying, but worry about the dollars when those dollars are earned. We have no idea right now if any of those guys you mentioned are going to consistently perform enough to get the big pay day. If Eloy ends up at like a Marcell Ozuna level hitter, good but not the ceiling you hoped, 4/40 is about that market. By that time we will know if Anderson figured out how to be a good enough SS to stick there and if his average can stay high while his walk rate is super low.

We know 100% not all those guys are going to be as good as we hope, it does not work that way. Some will likely stay, some go. Lopez we don't even know if he can be a good bullpen arm let a lone worthwhile rotation piece.

Sometimes the bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush.
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  #66  
Old 01-14-2020, 07:31 PM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Here's hoping Arenado ends up in St. Louis.
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  #67  
Old 01-14-2020, 07:48 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
I get what you are saying, but worry about the dollars when those dollars are earned. We have no idea right now if any of those guys you mentioned are going to consistently perform enough to get the big pay day. If Eloy ends up at like a Marcell Ozuna level hitter, good but not the ceiling you hoped, 4/40 is about that market. By that time we will know if Anderson figured out how to be a good enough SS to stick there and if his average can stay high while his walk rate is super low.

We know 100% not all those guys are going to be as good as we hope, it does not work that way. Some will likely stay, some go. Lopez we don't even know if he can be a good bullpen arm let a lone worthwhile rotation piece.

Sometimes the bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush.
Eloy, Anderson, and Robert are locked into increasing salary contracts for minimum the next 3-5 years with locked in salaries for total control 5-8 years. We know exactly what they will make. Those figures are locked in. The arbitrations will happen regardless. Whether those guys are making as much as they are currently on pace to, remains to be seen. It won't be far off of the numbers I posted. And if 1 or 2 completely flop, and a larger amount of money opens up, the Sox will have very big problems. You have to go into this assuming that everything works out for these guys, because you can't be caught 2-3 years from now in a prime WS contending year and not be prepared financially to pay high end players that you were banking on to be good to great. Also knowing full well of how arbitration works, which they obviously do.

I only projected Lopez to make around $7mil in 2022, so really changes nothing if he goes to the pen and makes a few mil less.

And "worry about the dollars when those dollars are earned" is not something a smart FO, or any FO, would abide by. We aren't talking about 5-6 years from now, we are talking about 2....

And no, we don't know 100% that not all of Eloy, Anderson, Robert, Moncada, Giolito, Kopech, Lopez will be as good as we hoped.
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  #68  
Old 01-14-2020, 08:28 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
Just a few months ago you were trying to convince me that the Sox (Jerry) wouldn't go much higher than their previous all time high payroll of $127mil, and now you think they should go ~$240mil (Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs have never gone that high)? Stay consistent at least.
Oh donít get me wrong. I donít see any of it happening at all. Itís just fun to dream.

BTW, the Red Sox have run payrolls of $239 and $243 the past 2 seasons. The Yankees ran a $237 payroll in 2013, a $243 payroll in 2016, and a $234 payroll last season. The Dodgers ran payrolls of $236, $257, $291, $252, and $253 from 2013-2017. Going to $200+ a full decade later should not be too unreasonable a request.

And Ricketts is every bit the cheap-ass owner that Reinsdorf is. With the Cubsí revenue streams, paying luxury tax to keep those 2016 guys together for 2 more seasons should not even require a second thought.
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  #69  
Old 01-14-2020, 08:50 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
Eloy, Anderson, and Robert are locked into increasing salary contracts for minimum the next 3-5 years with locked in salaries for total control 5-8 years. We know exactly what they will make. Those figures are locked in. The arbitrations will happen regardless. Whether those guys are making as much as they are currently on pace to, remains to be seen. It won't be far off of the numbers I posted. And if 1 or 2 completely flop, and a larger amount of money opens up, the Sox will have very big problems. You have to go into this assuming that everything works out for these guys, because you can't be caught 2-3 years from now in a prime WS contending year and not be prepared financially to pay high end players that you were banking on to be good to great. Also knowing full well of how arbitration works, which they obviously do.

I only projected Lopez to make around $7mil in 2022, so really changes nothing if he goes to the pen and makes a few mil less.

And "worry about the dollars when those dollars are earned" is not something a smart FO, or any FO, would abide by. We aren't talking about 5-6 years from now, we are talking about 2....

And no, we don't know 100% that not all of Eloy, Anderson, Robert, Moncada, Giolito, Kopech, Lopez will be as good as we hoped.
If Moncada and Giolito are both playing at this level in 2023, theyíre both gone anyway. If Eloy, Robert, and TA are as good as we hoped, it has no effect whatsoever on the payroll. If anything, there should be more incentive to maximize competitiveness in 2020, not less. Take full advantage of Moncada and Giolito making the league minimum this year.

That leaves Kopech, Cease, and Lopez. Since I included Lopez in that hypothetical package for Arenado, Iím not concerned about his salary number at all. So itís just Kopech (arb years 2022-2024) and Cease (arb years 2023-2025).

Eventually, you need to make some gutsy decisions about which prospects you keep and which prospects you trade, because itís not going to happen entirely on the backs of homegrown talent. You need to import a star from somewhere, and this offseason basically sealed the deal that this team will not accomplish this task via free agency.
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  #70  
Old 01-15-2020, 12:00 AM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Oh donít get me wrong. I donít see any of it happening at all. Itís just fun to dream.

BTW, the Red Sox have run payrolls of $239 and $243 the past 2 seasons. The Yankees ran a $237 payroll in 2013, a $243 payroll in 2016, and a $234 payroll last season. The Dodgers ran payrolls of $236, $257, $291, $252, and $253 from 2013-2017. Going to $200+ a full decade later should not be too unreasonable a request.

And Ricketts is every bit the cheap-ass owner that Reinsdorf is. With the Cubsí revenue streams, paying luxury tax to keep those 2016 guys together for 2 more seasons should not even require a second thought.
Neither $127mil or $240 are realistic, so why bring this up without specifying that after someone points out this is fantasy baseball?

Yeah, Red Sox were that with their 40 man, not 25 man. Still money paid out I guess.

Only pointing out that the Sox are not those teams in terms of spending by a long shot. However they are going to come very close to what Cubs/Yankees/Red Sox have done in recent years in 2023 with their payroll.
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  #71  
Old 01-15-2020, 12:06 AM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
If Moncada and Giolito are both playing at this level in 2023, they’re both gone anyway. If Eloy, Robert, and TA are as good as we hoped, it has no effect whatsoever on the payroll. If anything, there should be more incentive to maximize competitiveness in 2020, not less. Take full advantage of Moncada and Giolito making the league minimum this year.

That leaves Kopech, Cease, and Lopez. Since I included Lopez in that hypothetical package for Arenado, I’m not concerned about his salary number at all. So it’s just Kopech (arb years 2022-2024) and Cease (arb years 2023-2025).

Eventually, you need to make some gutsy decisions about which prospects you keep and which prospects you trade, because it’s not going to happen entirely on the backs of homegrown talent. You need to import a star from somewhere, and this offseason basically sealed the deal that this team will not accomplish this task via free agency.
Not sure why you're obsessed with saying that Giolito and Moncada won't be extended if they continue to be good. Giolito will actually be a rather easy extension guy, for at least 1-2 years extra. I also think that Moncada can be had for 1-2 years extra passed control as well. Paying him $25-30mil for 2024 and or both 2025 is very realistic. That would be huge and extends the WS window at least another year with all prime years of the core.

The Sox have a **** load of high end all star talent currently on their team or close to MLB ready. It's enough to win it all if things go right, without making some crazy trade for another all star at the detriment of SP upside and depth.
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  #72  
Old 01-15-2020, 12:12 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
Not sure why you're obsessed with saying that Giolito and Moncada won't be extended if they continue to be good. Giolito will actually be a rather easy extension guy, for at least 1-2 years extra. I also think that Moncada can be had for 1-2 years extra passed control as well. Paying him $25-30mil for 2024 and or both 2025 is very realistic. That would be huge and extends the WS window at least another year with all prime years of the core.

The Sox have a **** load of high end all star talent currently on their team or close to MLB ready. It's enough to win it all if things go right, without making some crazy trade for another all star at the detriment of SP upside and depth.
They are not going to be extended if they are good. They will have Rendon/Strasburg money coming to them.
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  #73  
Old 01-15-2020, 12:12 AM
KRS1 KRS1 is offline
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Not sure why you're obsessed with saying that Giolito and Moncada won't be extended if they continue to be good. Giolito will actually be a rather easy extension guy, for at least 1-2 years extra. I also think that Moncada can be had for 1-2 years extra passed control as well. Paying him $25-30mil for 2024 and or both 2025 is very realistic. That would be huge and extends the WS window at least another year with all prime years of the core.

The Sox have a **** load of high end all star talent currently on their team or close to MLB ready. It's enough to win it all if things go right, without making some crazy trade for another all star at the detriment of SP upside and depth.
I'm hoping we see the attention turned toward our existing player's contracts next offseason.
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  #74  
Old 01-15-2020, 12:34 AM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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They are not going to be extended if they are good. They will have Rendon/Strasburg money coming to them.
Just no clue why you don't at least say that it's your opinion that they shouldn't sign extensions or something. This is just making **** up that they won't. You literally have zero idea. I'm fairly confident you'll be wrong in this regard. The players literally have to continue at an elite level and be healthy for another 4 years to get there.

Also Strasbourg money, your right, that 7/$175 extension he signed.....

But, I'm done recycling old conversations that aren't based in reality.
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  #75  
Old 01-15-2020, 12:35 AM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Eloy, Anderson, and Robert are locked into increasing salary contracts for minimum the next 3-5 years with locked in salaries for total control 5-8 years. We know exactly what they will make. Those figures are locked in. The arbitrations will happen regardless. Whether those guys are making as much as they are currently on pace to, remains to be seen. It won't be far off of the numbers I posted. And if 1 or 2 completely flop, and a larger amount of money opens up, the Sox will have very big problems. You have to go into this assuming that everything works out for these guys, because you can't be caught 2-3 years from now in a prime WS contending year and not be prepared financially to pay high end players that you were banking on to be good to great. Also knowing full well of how arbitration works, which they obviously do.

I only projected Lopez to make around $7mil in 2022, so really changes nothing if he goes to the pen and makes a few mil less.

And "worry about the dollars when those dollars are earned" is not something a smart FO, or any FO, would abide by. We aren't talking about 5-6 years from now, we are talking about 2....

And no, we don't know 100% that not all of Eloy, Anderson, Robert, Moncada, Giolito, Kopech, Lopez will be as good as we hoped.
I am really confused. Are you trying to say the guys locked in will also he going to arbitration? Or are you saying the other guys are going to arbitration. Because the former canít happen, they signed guaranteed deals through their arbitration years.
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