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Old 05-18-2009, 10:16 PM
TDog TDog is offline
WSI Prelate
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Modesto, California
Posts: 17,863

Originally Posted by ode to veeck View Post
breaking stuff in the show is nothing like they've seen in the minors
if Jose could hit his spots consistently, he could be pitching again for us at the Cell
I agree. In-person scouting is in order, probably after a few more starts. Really, the strikeouts-to-walks ratio doesn't tell the whole story. Players who don't face major league breaking stuff might be more easily retired on pitches that major leaguers would take for balls. Many major league pitchers get most of their strikeout on pitches out of the strike zone, but pitchers generally have to have pretty good stuff to accomplish that.

Contreras' stuff wasn't that good when he was with the Sox this season. My impression is that he had problems with his command, not his velocity. In the minors there is a greater margin of error at the fringes of success. Some pitchers have been quite successful at AAA and AA living within that margin of error. A few don't make as much use of it.

There is no such thing as a statistical conversion from one level to the next. A pitcher with an ERA under 2 in the PCL might get hit very hard in the AL, but a pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 in the PCL could end up having a lower average in the AL because he has better defense behind him. Scouting by statistics is a guessing game.
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