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  #181  
Old 09-28-2019, 02:23 PM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
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$30 million/yr for David Price seems steep.
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  #182  
Old 09-28-2019, 02:36 PM
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$30 million/yr for David Price seems steep.
He's in pretty steep decline and is 34. At most I'd count on him to be a #5. How many years left on that contract?
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  #183  
Old 09-28-2019, 02:40 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
He's in pretty steep decline and is 34. At most I'd count on him to be a #5. How many years left on that contract?
3 years @ $32 million per.
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  #184  
Old 09-28-2019, 02:43 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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$30 million/yr for David Price seems steep.
A 3-WAR season would be an overpay at that price. A 4-WAR season would be right around fair market value.
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  #185  
Old 09-28-2019, 02:46 PM
asindc asindc is offline
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$30 million/yr for David Price seems steep.
Iíll pass. Let them take the gamble they agreed to.
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  #186  
Old 09-28-2019, 02:48 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HomeFish View Post
$30 million/yr for David Price seems steep.
Of course it is. It's a bad contract and he will be a #5 by the end of it, three years from now. He is a #2/#3 now. His decline will match up nicely with the development of Kopech/Cease/Lopez/others.

The [White] Sox have excess money for the next few years -- money that needs to be reserved to extend the youngsters before free agency. If they can find two pitchers as good as Price in free agency, wonderful. But if not, where are they going to get one as good as Price without giving up real prospects?

When at his best, Price has been a HoF-caliber pitcher. I'm betting he has enough stuff and guile to stay in the Sox rotation for the next three years. Look at Baseball Reference's Similar Pitchers through 32:

Max Scherzer (966.1)
Johan Santana (965.1)
Jon Lester (951.4)
Roy Oswalt (950.5)
Jered Weaver (947.1)
Roy Halladay (943.2) *
Tim Hudson (936.4)
John Candelaria (934.0)
Cole Hamels (921.2)
David Cone (917.8)
* - Signifies Hall of Famer
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  #187  
Old 09-28-2019, 02:50 PM
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A 3-WAR season would be an overpay at that price. A 4-WAR season would be right around fair market value.
This year he was a 1.8 WAR player with a 113 ERA+. since 2014 he's had three seasons with less than 80 IP and last year he pitched 107. In his whole career he's had 1 season above 4 WAR 2018.
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  #188  
Old 09-28-2019, 03:03 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Send them Rodon and have them eat half the salary.
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  #189  
Old 09-28-2019, 03:57 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
This year he was a 1.8 WAR player with a 113 ERA+. since 2014 he's had three seasons with less than 80 IP and last year he pitched 107. In his whole career he's had 1 season above 4 WAR 2018.
1.8 in only 107 IP. A full season at the same production level would be somewhere between 3 and 4.
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  #190  
Old 09-28-2019, 04:24 PM
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1.8 in only 107 IP. A full season at the same production level would be somewhere between 3 and 4.
Assuming he can pitch a whole season. He hasn't done that in 4 or the last 6. Not even close. Another season he had 140 IP.
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  #191  
Old 09-28-2019, 04:36 PM
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Assuming he can pitch a whole season. He hasn't done that in 4 or the last 6. Not even close. Another season he had 140 IP.
But if he does, there is a lot of upside.

Iím just trying to think of realistic options, because I harbor no delusions that this ownership will make a realistic offer to Gerrit Cole.
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  #192  
Old 09-28-2019, 04:41 PM
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But if he does, there is a lot of upside.

Iím just trying to think of realistic options, because I harbor no delusions that this ownership will make a realistic offer to Gerrit Cole.
I don't think Price is a reasonable alternative to Cole.
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  #193  
Old 09-28-2019, 04:44 PM
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
Send them Rodon and have them eat half the salary.
At that point, they may as well just keep Price. Blowing a hole in the rotation and paying $16 million annually to the White Sox for the privilege makes no sense. Any arm to replace Price would be at least another $7-10 million per year, so where is the financial incentive?
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  #194  
Old 09-28-2019, 04:46 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
I don't think Price is a reasonable alternative to Cole.
He's not. They need to find a #1 and a #3 to have confidence in their rotation, because Cease and Lopez and Kopech cannot be counted on for anything more than #4.
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  #195  
Old 09-28-2019, 04:47 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
I don't think Price is a reasonable alternative to Cole.
Well, all I can say is that you should prepare to be disappointed, because hell has a better chance of freezing over than the White Sox have of signing Gerrit Cole.
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