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  #166  
Old 09-17-2019, 04:23 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Originally Posted by GoSox2K3 View Post
The bullpen is another big question mark. Colome will be 31 next year and probably isn't a long-term answer. Bummer looks great but Fry regressed this year. Burdi and Hamilton had disastrous, injury-plagued years. Tyler Johnson lost a lot of time due to injury, too. That'll need to be addressed by the time this team is ready to compete again.
Bullpen ERAs have been up across the league this year, for whatever reason. For all their issues, the Sox team relief ERA is middle of the pack. At one point this season I read that this is the first season in 30 years or something that league-wide ERA for RPs is higher than that of SPs.
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  #167  
Old 09-17-2019, 04:55 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Sox still need to pick up some quality bullpen arms. There's only a couple of guys that seem reliable moving forward, and we all know even calling bullpen arms reliable is a stretch outside the few elite guys out there.

The more I think about it, the more I'm in favor of signing Castellanos. Sure it'd be nice to get a left handed bat but I don't think it's essential. This guy is an extra base hit machine and only reaching his prime. He's had at least 75 each of the last three years, could get to 90 this year. Put him and Abreu behind an assortment of Anderson, Moncada, Jimenez, maybe Robert or Madrigal, they could rack up some serious RBI totals. If we could pick up a solid OBP guy who plays a solid right field like Choo or Eaton(yeah I know)on the short term and bump Castellanos to primarily DH even better. Something like:

Eaton/Choo
Anderson
Moncada
Jimenez
Castellanos
Abreu
Robert
McCann
Madrigal

I'd roll with that no problem.
Not giving up on Collins either. Give him 40 starts behind the plate, backup at DH/1b, let him understudy with McCann and make him force McCann into a backup roll over the next year or two if he can.
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  #168  
Old 09-17-2019, 04:57 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
Bullpen ERAs have been up across the league this year, for whatever reason. For all their issues, the Sox team relief ERA is middle of the pack. At one point this season I read that this is the first season in 30 years or something that league-wide ERA for RPs is higher than that of SPs.
Maybe we have finally reached the tipping point where the “3rd time through the order tax” has been surpassed by the sheer number of innings being pitched by random dog**** middle relievers. I, for one, welcome anything that makes me see less of guys like Juan Minaya and Josh Osich.
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  #169  
Old 09-17-2019, 05:06 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is online now
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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
Bullpen ERAs have been up across the league this year, for whatever reason. For all their issues, the Sox team relief ERA is middle of the pack. At one point this season I read that this is the first season in 30 years or something that league-wide ERA for RPs is higher than that of SPs.
The baseballs are juiced this year.

Not sure what the comparison of ERAs were from RP to SP before this year.
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  #170  
Old 09-17-2019, 05:10 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
The baseballs are juiced this year.

Not sure what the comparison of ERAs were from RP to SP before this year.
Yeah but they're juiced for both starters and relievers. I'm leaning more to the increased use of dog **** relievers theory.
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  #171  
Old 09-17-2019, 05:38 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
The baseballs are juiced this year.

Not sure what the comparison of ERAs were from RP to SP before this year.
I wish I could find the link where I read about the discrepancy. This is the best I can find now, which compares SPs to RPs on a bunch of metrics. It only goes through 2011, but last time starters had a worse ERA than relievers was 1969.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bey...-rp-since-1950

I agree with Mahoney’s dog**** reliever theory. Keep in mind that this doesn’t account for the fact that the dog**** relievers aren’t typically pitching in competitive games. I’d be curious what the comparison looks like between starters and relievers if you limit it to looking at games that are within, say, 3 runs.
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  #172  
Old 09-17-2019, 05:58 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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I miss the days of 5- and 6-man bullpens. The 7th and 8th guys are always going to be dog**** compared to the 5th and 6th.

Just give me Jenks, Hermanson, Vizcaino, Politte, Cotts and Marte.
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  #173  
Old 09-17-2019, 05:59 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
I wish I could find the link where I read about the discrepancy. This is the best I can find now, which compares SPs to RPs on a bunch of metrics. It only goes through 2011, but last time starters had a worse ERA than relievers was 1969.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bey...-rp-since-1950

I agree with Mahoney’s dog**** reliever theory. Keep in mind that this doesn’t account for the fact that the dog**** relievers aren’t typically pitching in competitive games. I’d be curious what the comparison looks like between starters and relievers if you limit it to looking at games that are within, say, 3 runs.
Getting a bit off topic, so I apologize, but I just came across this article by the one and only Bill James, describing how relievers have an inherent advantage over starters in terms of ERA due to the fact that they often only have to record 1-2 outs in order to get escape an inning without giving up an earned run. He estimates this effect to be about 0.2 ERA points.

http://research.sabr.org/journals/re...-era-advantage
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  #174  
Old 09-17-2019, 06:08 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Plus they're inserted in what would typically be considered favorable match ups whereas the starter is going through a lineup designed to maximize the hitters' favorable match ups. I'd think .2 would be a conservative estimate.
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  #175  
Old 09-17-2019, 07:07 PM
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Originally Posted by TheVulture View Post
Yeah but they're juiced for both starters and relievers. I'm leaning more to the increased use of dog **** relievers theory.
I think there's also a component of teams not vying for playoff slots trying to figure out which of their guys they should keep going foward when the rules change and those LOOGY have to pitch a whole inning. We've seen this a bit with the Sox this year.

Some of those players aren't going to cut it and are in the process of donking their way out of the league.
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  #176  
Old 09-18-2019, 09:42 AM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
I think there's also a component of teams not vying for playoff slots trying to figure out which of their guys they should keep going foward when the rules change and those LOOGY have to pitch a whole inning. We've seen this a bit with the Sox this year.

Some of those players aren't going to cut it and are in the process of donking their way out of the league.
FiveThirtyEight had a piece back in August about how relievers now had a higher ERA than starters and that was the first time it had happened in awhile. To your point, some of it could be because you have so many tanking teams with atrocious bullpens, it brings up all the ERAs.

I think one of the contributing factors is it seems like you have a lot of teams that manage their bullpens throughout the regular season the same way teams do in the playoffs, and that will tax your bullpen real quick.

Also, I think that the Sox should look at adding to the bullpen this offseason. I know Colome has regressed quite a bit in the second half but it seems like there's so much volatility with relievers year after year that it is almost always a good idea to invest in more arms for the bullpen.
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  #177  
Old 09-18-2019, 09:45 AM
asindc asindc is offline
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Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
FiveThirtyEight had a piece back in August about how relievers now had a higher ERA than starters and that was the first time it had happened in awhile. To your point, some of it could be because you have so many tanking teams with atrocious bullpens, it brings up all the ERAs.

I think one of the contributing factors is it seems like you have a lot of teams that manage their bullpens throughout the regular season the same way teams do in the playoffs, and that will tax your bullpen real quick.
Yep.
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  #178  
Old 09-18-2019, 11:16 AM
Flight #24 Flight #24 is offline
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
I miss the days of 5- and 6-man bullpens. The 7th and 8th guys are always going to be dog**** compared to the 5th and 6th.

Just give me Jenks, Hermanson, Vizcaino, Politte, Cotts and Marte.
I'd take any of those guys today over some of the dogpoop we have on our staff. Yeah I'm looking at you Ruiz, Osich, Herrera (yesterday notwithstanding), Fulmer, Covey, Detwiler.....
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  #179  
Old 09-18-2019, 12:05 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Originally Posted by Flight #24 View Post
I'd take any of those guys today over some of the dogpoop we have on our staff. Yeah I'm looking at you Ruiz, Osich, Herrera (yesterday notwithstanding), Fulmer, Covey, Detwiler.....
Osich has been a bona fide major league reliever this year. His ERA+ is 97, which makes him approximately average for the league, and his hits/walks/strikeouts come in the right proportions. He's given up a few too many home runs but he's been head and shoulders better than the rest of those guys.
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  #180  
Old 09-18-2019, 01:52 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Originally Posted by TheVulture View Post
Plus they're inserted in what would typically be considered favorable match ups whereas the starter is going through a lineup designed to maximize the hitters' favorable match ups. I'd think .2 would be a conservative estimate.
His approach was specifically trying to estimate the difference in ERA due to the fact that relievers come into the game in the middle of innings. He does this by stratifying all pitchers into groups based on per-batter performance (measured by hits/9 and walks/9), and comparing the RPs and the SPs that fall into each bucket. So what is being controlled for is the per-batter results, not the pitchers' actual ability.

The goal is just to measure how pitchers with similar performance on a per-batter level can have different ERAs, based on one being a starter and one being a reliever.

One big limitation of this analysis is that it doesn't account for the quality of the hits. I'm not sure when this article was written, but I imagine if it was done today the breakdown might be by opponents OBP and opponents SLG rather than hits/9 and walks/9.
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