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  #46  
Old 08-05-2018, 09:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
The WSJ had an article this week about pitchers achieving higher SO ratios w/o pounding the strikezone. The trend is that hitters, with their unfinished approach at the plate, are much more successful in getting themselves out these days.
When you've got on average about .45 seconds to figure out if a pitch is a ball or a strike you have to make a decision immediately when it leaves the pitchers hand on whether to swing or not. The vast majority of thrown balls look like strikes when pitchers release them and speed and break are improving all the time. More so when teams are making a lot more pitching changes than they did even as recently as 25 years ago.

It is also true that teams are emphasizing pull hitting due to the likelihood of an extra base hit increasing.

While K are up teams are averaging 4.45 R/G in 2018, down slightly from last years 4.65 and 2016's 4.48. However it's middle of the pack since 1950 and a good chunk of the years that beat that number are during the heart of the steroid era.

Code:
Year	Tms	BatAge	R/G	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	SH	SF
2000	30	29.1	5.14	5.14	9.31	1.83	0.2	1.17	4.89	3.75	6.45	0.27	0.345	0.437	0.782	15.05	0.34	0.31
1999	30	28.9	5.08	5.08	9.33	1.8	0.19	1.14	4.83	3.68	6.41	0.271	0.345	0.434	0.778	14.93	0.33	0.3
1996	28	28.8	5.04	5.04	9.33	1.76	0.19	1.09	4.76	3.55	6.46	0.27	0.34	0.427	0.767	14.76	0.34	0.31
1994	28	28.7	4.92	4.92	9.29	1.79	0.22	1.03	4.64	3.48	6.18	0.27	0.339	0.424	0.763	14.62	0.38	0.31
2006	30	29.2	4.86	4.86	9.28	1.88	0.2	1.11	4.63	3.26	6.52	0.269	0.337	0.432	0.768	14.88	0.34	0.29
1950	16	28.3	4.85	4.85	9.11	1.5	0.32	0.84	4.55	4.02	3.86	0.266	0.346	0.402	0.748	13.76	0.5	
1995	28	28.6	4.85	4.85	9.17	1.72	0.2	1.01	4.57	3.53	6.3	0.267	0.338	0.417	0.755	14.33	0.37	0.29
2004	30	29.3	4.81	4.81	9.17	1.84	0.18	1.12	4.58	3.34	6.55	0.266	0.335	0.428	0.763	14.74	0.36	0.28
2007	30	29.1	4.8	4.8	9.25	1.89	0.19	1.02	4.58	3.31	6.62	0.268	0.336	0.423	0.758	14.59	0.32	0.3
1998	30	28.9	4.79	4.79	9.15	1.8	0.18	1.04	4.54	3.38	6.56	0.266	0.335	0.42	0.755	14.44	0.35	0.29
2001	30	29.2	4.78	4.78	9.03	1.81	0.19	1.12	4.55	3.25	6.67	0.264	0.332	0.427	0.759	14.6	0.33	0.29
1997	28	28.9	4.77	4.77	9.15	1.77	0.19	1.02	4.52	3.46	6.61	0.267	0.337	0.419	0.756	14.38	0.35	0.31
2003	30	29.2	4.73	4.73	9.07	1.82	0.19	1.07	4.5	3.27	6.34	0.264	0.333	0.422	0.755	14.48	0.33	0.27
1987	26	28.3	4.72	4.72	9	1.61	0.21	1.06	4.44	3.42	5.96	0.263	0.331	0.415	0.747	14.22	0.35	0.26
2008	30	28.8	4.65	4.65	9.06	1.86	0.18	1	4.44	3.36	6.77	0.264	0.333	0.416	0.749	14.29	0.31	0.28
2017	30	28.3	4.65	4.65	8.69	1.73	0.16	1.26	4.44	3.26	8.25	0.255	0.324	0.426	0.75	14.51	0.19	0.24
2002	30	29.2	4.62	4.62	8.92	1.79	0.19	1.04	4.4	3.35	6.47	0.261	0.331	0.417	0.748	14.22	0.34	0.29
1953	16	28.4	4.61	4.61	9.06	1.45	0.3	0.84	4.32	3.5	4.12	0.264	0.336	0.397	0.733	13.62	0.5	
2009	30	28.8	4.61	4.61	8.96	1.8	0.2	1.04	4.4	3.42	6.91	0.262	0.333	0.418	0.751	14.26	0.34	0.28
1993	28	28.4	4.6	4.6	9.05	1.64	0.21	0.89	4.32	3.33	5.8	0.265	0.332	0.403	0.736	13.77	0.4	0.32
2005	30	29.2	4.59	4.59	9.05	1.82	0.18	1.03	4.37	3.13	6.3	0.264	0.33	0.419	0.749	14.33	0.33	0.27
1951	16	28.7	4.55	4.55	8.96	1.45	0.29	0.75	4.25	3.73	3.77	0.261	0.336	0.386	0.722	13.23	0.5	
1961	18	28	4.53	4.53	8.76	1.39	0.26	0.95	4.22	3.46	5.23	0.258	0.328	0.399	0.727	13.55	0.46	0.27
1955	16	28.3	4.48	4.48	8.76	1.32	0.28	0.9	4.21	3.66	4.38	0.259	0.332	0.394	0.726	13.34	0.48	0.28
2016	30	28.4	4.48	4.48	8.71	1.7	0.18	1.16	4.27	3.11	8.03	0.255	0.322	0.417	0.739	14.23	0.21	0.25
1977	26	27.4	4.47	4.47	9.04	1.53	0.28	0.87	4.18	3.27	5.16	0.264	0.329	0.401	0.73	13.73	0.42	0.29
1962	20	27.9	4.46	4.46	8.8	1.33	0.26	0.93	4.18	3.37	5.42	0.258	0.326	0.393	0.719	13.43	0.42	0.26
1979	26	28	4.46	4.46	9.03	1.53	0.25	0.82	4.18	3.24	4.77	0.265	0.33	0.397	0.727	13.52	0.45	0.31
1956	16	28.3	4.45	4.45	8.74	1.35	0.29	0.93	4.17	3.63	4.64	0.258	0.331	0.397	0.729	13.45	0.51	0.26
2018	30	28.2	4.45	4.45	8.46	1.73	0.17	1.15	4.26	3.26	8.46	0.248	0.319	0.409	0.728	13.96	0.17	0.25
1986	26	28.7	4.41	4.41	8.77	1.55	0.2	0.91	4.14	3.38	5.87	0.258	0.326	0.395	0.721	13.44	0.36	0.28
1954	16	28.1	4.38	4.38	8.86	1.4	0.32	0.78	4.11	3.65	4.13	0.261	0.333	0.39	0.723	13.24	0.54	0.32
1959	16	28.5	4.38	4.38	8.74	1.4	0.24	0.91	4.11	3.31	5.09	0.257	0.324	0.392	0.716	13.35	0.46	0.25
2010	30	28.9	4.38	4.38	8.76	1.75	0.18	0.95	4.17	3.25	7.06	0.257	0.325	0.403	0.728	13.71	0.32	0.27
1970	24	27.6	4.34	4.34	8.63	1.35	0.24	0.88	4.05	3.53	5.75	0.254	0.326	0.385	0.711	13.1	0.42	0.25
1985	26	28.8	4.33	4.33	8.74	1.53	0.23	0.86	4.07	3.29	5.34	0.257	0.323	0.391	0.714	13.3	0.37	0.27
2012	30	28.5	4.32	4.32	8.65	1.7	0.19	1.02	4.11	3.03	7.5	0.255	0.319	0.405	0.724	13.78	0.3	0.25
1957	16	28.5	4.31	4.31	8.85	1.37	0.27	0.89	4.06	3.31	4.84	0.258	0.324	0.391	0.715	13.45	0.45	0.28
1960	16	28.2	4.31	4.31	8.67	1.39	0.27	0.86	4.03	3.39	5.18	0.255	0.324	0.388	0.712	13.18	0.48	0.28
1983	26	28.7	4.31	4.31	8.88	1.53	0.24	0.78	4.05	3.2	5.15	0.261	0.325	0.389	0.714	13.25	0.37	0.3
1991	26	28.4	4.31	4.31	8.69	1.54	0.21	0.8	4.05	3.32	5.8	0.256	0.323	0.385	0.708	13.07	0.39	0.3
1982	26	28.7	4.3	4.3	8.93	1.5	0.23	0.8	4.04	3.16	5.04	0.261	0.324	0.389	0.713	13.3	0.41	0.29
1980	26	28.2	4.29	4.29	9.06	1.51	0.26	0.73	4.02	3.13	4.8	0.265	0.326	0.388	0.714	13.28	0.45	0.31
1958	16	28.4	4.28	4.28	8.75	1.37	0.27	0.91	4.03	3.29	4.95	0.258	0.325	0.394	0.719	13.38	0.42	0.26
2011	30	28.7	4.28	4.28	8.7	1.73	0.18	0.94	4.08	3.09	7.1	0.255	0.321	0.399	0.72	13.61	0.34	0.26
1984	26	28.6	4.26	4.26	8.88	1.48	0.23	0.77	3.99	3.16	5.34	0.26	0.323	0.385	0.708	13.14	0.34	0.31
1990	26	28.4	4.26	4.26	8.75	1.55	0.21	0.79	3.99	3.29	5.67	0.258	0.325	0.385	0.71	13.07	0.37	0.3
2015	30	28.4	4.25	4.25	8.67	1.7	0.19	1.01	4.04	2.9	7.71	0.254	0.317	0.405	0.721	13.78	0.25	0.25
1973	24	27.6	4.21	4.21	8.75	1.34	0.2	0.8	3.93	3.37	5.24	0.257	0.325	0.379	0.704	12.9	0.4	0.26
1975	24	27.3	4.21	4.21	8.75	1.41	0.23	0.7	3.92	3.46	4.98	0.258	0.327	0.374	0.701	12.71	0.48	0.28
1952	16	28.5	4.18	4.18	8.58	1.37	0.27	0.69	3.9	3.54	4.19	0.253	0.327	0.37	0.696	12.56	0.55	
2013	30	28.5	4.17	4.17	8.66	1.69	0.16	0.96	3.96	3.01	7.55	0.253	0.318	0.396	0.714	13.54	0.28	0.25
1988	26	28.3	4.14	4.14	8.63	1.52	0.2	0.76	3.86	3.09	5.56	0.254	0.318	0.378	0.696	12.82	0.39	0.3
1989	26	28.5	4.13	4.13	8.62	1.5	0.21	0.73	3.85	3.21	5.61	0.254	0.32	0.375	0.695	12.72	0.39	0.29
1974	24	27.3	4.12	4.12	8.73	1.34	0.22	0.68	3.82	3.33	5.01	0.257	0.324	0.369	0.693	12.55	0.45	0.28
1992	26	28.4	4.12	4.12	8.68	1.56	0.2	0.72	3.87	3.25	5.59	0.256	0.322	0.377	0.7	12.8	0.4	0.31
1978	26	27.6	4.1	4.1	8.68	1.47	0.24	0.7	3.83	3.23	4.77	0.258	0.323	0.379	0.702	12.75	0.47	0.3
1969	24	27.4	4.07	4.07	8.37	1.24	0.22	0.8	3.77	3.45	5.77	0.248	0.32	0.369	0.689	12.46	0.43	0.23
2014	30	28.5	4.07	4.07	8.56	1.67	0.17	0.86	3.86	2.88	7.7	0.251	0.314	0.386	0.7	13.17	0.28	0.26
1964	20	27.4	4.04	4.04	8.51	1.31	0.23	0.85	3.76	2.96	5.91	0.25	0.313	0.378	0.69	12.84	0.45	0.23
1981	26	28.5	4	4	8.66	1.43	0.24	0.64	3.75	3.18	4.75	0.256	0.32	0.369	0.689	12.49	0.45	0.3
1965	20	27.3	3.99	3.99	8.3	1.29	0.24	0.83	3.7	3.09	5.94	0.246	0.311	0.372	0.683	12.57	0.46	0.24
1966	20	27.3	3.99	3.99	8.42	1.28	0.25	0.85	3.71	2.89	5.82	0.249	0.31	0.376	0.686	12.75	0.45	0.23
1976	24	27.5	3.99	3.99	8.66	1.35	0.25	0.58	3.7	3.2	4.83	0.255	0.32	0.361	0.681	12.24	0.46	0.31
1963	20	27.6	3.95	3.95	8.35	1.27	0.24	0.84	3.68	2.96	5.8	0.246	0.309	0.372	0.681	12.61	0.45	0.24
1971	24	27.6	3.89	3.89	8.4	1.27	0.21	0.74	3.63	3.23	5.41	0.249	0.317	0.365	0.682	12.3	0.46	0.25
1967	20	27.3	3.77	3.77	8.17	1.26	0.24	0.71	3.48	2.98	5.99	0.242	0.306	0.357	0.664	12.05	0.46	0.23
1972	24	27.5	3.69	3.69	8.19	1.25	0.2	0.68	3.43	3.15	5.57	0.244	0.311	0.354	0.664	11.88	0.47	0.24
1968	20	27.6	3.42	3.42	7.91	1.19	0.21	0.61	3.17	2.82	5.89	0.237	0.299	0.34	0.639	11.37	0.46	0.23
The interesting thing is you have two years 2018 and 1956 when the number of runs per game are identical but the way they got there is different:

Code:
1956	16	28.3	4.45	4.45	8.74	1.35	0.29	0.93	4.17	3.63	4.64	0.258	0.331	0.397	0.729	13.45	0.51	0.26
2018	30	28.2	4.45	4.45	8.46	1.73	0.17	1.15	4.26	3.26	8.46	0.248	0.319	0.409	0.728	13.96	0.17	0.25
Currently there are a lot more HR, 2B and SLG and less H, BA, and sacrifice bunts.

Of course in 1956 there were 16 teams and teams carried 9 pitchers or so. The Sox carried 10 off and on through the season but only 4 relievers and all of the starters put in time as relievers. Heck even Billy Pierce appeared twice in relief that year. The team also had 11 shutouts (compared to 4 by the 2005 team for example).

It was at least fun taking a look at this stuff. If you want to play around with numbers you can go to baseball reference. Here's a link to the batting stats by year. You can sort this by any column, but you can also modify the table by clicking on "share and more" and messing around. I found it easier to export the table then modify it in Excel to get the information I was after.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/l.../MLB/bat.shtml
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  #47  
Old 08-05-2018, 10:47 AM
SI1020 SI1020 is online now
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Pitchers throw fewer strikes, they throw fewer fastballs, the fastballs they do throw travel faster ... there are a lot of factors.

Maybe we have reached a point where that “unfinished approach” is the best we’re gonna get.
This is the attitude that makes me want to put my head through the nearest wall. This is the way it is, nothing can change it. Baseball has continually evolved over the years and it can evolve it's way out of the straight jacket it has placed itself in. Hitters have it in their power to adjust to shifts, to quit swinging at slop, to make the pitcher come to them like a Frank Thomas or a Ted Williams. But no, got to swing hard and pull the ball every single time.
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Old 08-05-2018, 10:50 AM
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This is the attitude that makes me want to put my head through the nearest wall. This is the way it is, nothing can change it. Baseball has continually evolved over the years and it can evolve it's way out of the straight jacket it has placed itself in. Hitters have it in their power to adjust to shifts, to quit swinging at slop, to make the pitcher come to them like a Frank Thomas or a Ted Williams. But no, got to swing hard and pull the ball every single time.
Runs scored are actually trending upwards again and are definitely higher on average than most of the balanced years approach.
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Old 08-05-2018, 11:12 AM
SI1020 SI1020 is online now
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Runs scored are actually trending upwards again and are definitely higher on average than most of the balanced years approach.
Those are some interesting stats you posted and linked. In time I'll study them. No attempt to be dismissive or flippant but if I'm building a team I want it to be versatile and have the ability to beat you multiple ways. I just watched the Johnson/Cejudo title match. It did my heart good to see two short guys perform at such a high level. Cejudo got the narrow decision because he made some serious adjustments from his crushing defeat in the first fight. Maybe I'm taking the discussion too far afield with that example but isn't one of the most constant slap in the face axioms of life the accepted fact that the only constant is change. Chicks aren't the only ones that dig the long ball. I do too. I just tend to not like rigid orthodoxies.
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Old 08-05-2018, 12:03 PM
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Since the topic has basically turned towards the state of baseball (hitting) today, I found this story in the Sun-Times very interesting today (Sunday). Both Konerko and Renteria talk about the state of the game today and Rick goes into more detail on his philosophy and what he expects the Sox to be doing as long as he is the field manager:

https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/...rick-renteria/
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Old 08-05-2018, 12:13 PM
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Since the topic has basically turned towards the state of baseball (hitting) today, I found this story in the Sun-Times very interesting today (Sunday). Both Konerko and Renteria talk about the state of the game today and Rick goes into more detail on his philosophy and what he expects the Sox to be doing as long as he is the field manager:

https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/...rick-renteria/

Renteria is not getting his message across to players that are mostly marginal MLB players. With these type of players there is a means to make sure his message gets across but its not happening. Why?
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Old 08-05-2018, 06:30 PM
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Both Konerko and Renteria talk about the state of the game today and Rick goes into more detail on his philosophy and what he expects the Sox to be doing as long as he is the field manager

But Renteria is the worst manager in the history of the Sox. If he thinks a balanced approach to the game is the way to play, he has to be wrong. Swing for the fences on every pitch.
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Old 08-05-2018, 07:13 PM
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This is the attitude that makes me want to put my head through the nearest wall. This is the way it is, nothing can change it. Baseball has continually evolved over the years and it can evolve it's way out of the straight jacket it has placed itself in. Hitters have it in their power to adjust to shifts, to quit swinging at slop, to make the pitcher come to them like a Frank Thomas or a Ted Williams. But no, got to swing hard and pull the ball every single time.

Here's the scoop: hitters have the freedom to adjust to shifts and layoff pitches outside the zone.


They don't because the game is geared to the initiate a visceral reaction. Its all about feeling. Home runs are exciting, sacrifices are not. The more home runs, the greater the emotional response. Baseball equates all this excitement as a required input to feed a feelings based baseball community.


The other reason that hitters prefer to swing for the fences no matter the situation is that the art of hitting requires discipline and practice.
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Old 08-05-2018, 07:36 PM
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They don't because the game is geared to the initiate a visceral reaction.
The Sox have done well at giving me a visceral reaction since I was a kid.
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Old 08-05-2018, 08:05 PM
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Here's the scoop: hitters have the freedom to adjust to shifts and layoff pitches outside the zone.


They don't because the game is geared to the initiate a visceral reaction. Its all about feeling. Home runs are exciting, sacrifices are not. The more home runs, the greater the emotional response. Baseball equates all this excitement as a required input to feed a feelings based baseball community.


The other reason that hitters prefer to swing for the fences no matter the situation is that the art of hitting requires discipline and practice.
If runs are up why change?

The purpose of hitting is to score runs. It's not to look pretty or appeal to some sense of fan appeasement. It's just to score runs. Runs are climbing since teams really started to dig into this approach.

Edit: I just checked the numbers and if you remove the steroid era years (1991-2003), then since 1950, 2017 is the 6th best offensive season, 2016 is 13th and 2018 is 18th - out of 56 total seasons.

Edit 2: In fact 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2017 are ALL in the top 10.

Last edited by voodoochile; 08-05-2018 at 08:15 PM.
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  #56  
Old 08-05-2018, 08:59 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
If runs are up why change?

The purpose of hitting is to score runs. It's not to look pretty or appeal to some sense of fan appeasement. It's just to score runs. Runs are climbing since teams really started to dig into this approach.

Edit: I just checked the numbers and if you remove the steroid era years (1991-2003), then since 1950, 2017 is the 6th best offensive season, 2016 is 13th and 2018 is 18th - out of 56 total seasons.

Edit 2: In fact 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2017 are ALL in the top 10.
These facts are creating a visceral reaction in me.
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Old 08-05-2018, 10:51 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by SI1020
This is the attitude that makes me want to put my head through the nearest wall. This is the way it is, nothing can change it. Baseball has continually evolved over the years and it can evolve it's way out of the straight jacket it has placed itself in. Hitters have it in their power to adjust to shifts, to quit swinging at slop, to make the pitcher come to them like a Frank Thomas or a Ted Williams. But no, got to swing hard and pull the ball every single time.
Voodoo’s post is a perfect answer to this. Offenses are not “failing” to score runs. You simply don’t like the way their “success” looks.
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Old 08-05-2018, 11:00 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by FielderJones
But Renteria is the worst manager in the history of the Sox. If he thinks a balanced approach to the game is the way to play, he has to be wrong. Swing for the fences on every pitch.
Maybe not in the history of the franchise, but it sure as hell makes me want him gone by the time this team is ready to compete again.
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Old 08-05-2018, 11:04 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz
Here's the scoop: hitters have the freedom to...layoff pitches outside the zone.
FielderJones pointed out that Moncada is doing this very thing, and it has blown up in his face. 32 backwards Ks on pitches that were not actually strikes...
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Old 08-06-2018, 04:04 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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FielderJones pointed out that Moncada is doing this very thing, and it has blown up in his face. 32 backwards Ks on pitches that were not actually strikes...

Is Moncada the only player that is exposed to this? Does this impact his defense? His attitude?


I am all for more time for the kid. I believe he'll be fine. I am just not for making excuses.
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