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  #211  
Old 10-13-2019, 11:00 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
Maybe you meant that strong performance one year doesn't guarantee strong performance the next year, or that "statistics can't quantify everything," to which you would have very few people disagree with you. But that's not what you said, which is why you are getting some very confused replies.
The confused replies are from those that are confused. "Past performance is no guarantee of future results" is generally treated as a cautionary warning. One cannot assume an asset will continue to do well in the future simply because it's done well in the past.

This turn of phrase has been around forever. Most grasp it's meaning. But to those out of reach I think of Orwell and the restatement of the obvious.
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  #212  
Old 10-13-2019, 11:57 AM
KRS1 KRS1 is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post

I don’t want to argue with you on semantics, but in this case the semantics matter, because you’re then twisting the statement further to make some very weird points, like the one where stat-heads want to sign Sandy Koufax (as if past history doesn’t tell us anything about how well 80-year-old pitchers would do in the majors) and that the Mets ignored past performance and instead relied on “gut feeling” when they drafted Nolan Ryan.
Which is all still only half as ridiculous as projecting a 22 year old (who hit 341 and 331 at AA and AAA respectively his first full year in pro baseball) with some very elite skills to be a basically worthless player based on a few dumb, isolated power stats.
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  #213  
Old 10-13-2019, 12:07 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by KRS1 View Post
Which is all still only half as ridiculous as projecting a 22 year old with some very elite skills to be a basically worthless player based on a few dumb, isolated power stats.
No one said it was automatic. What I said was his bat-on-ball abilities have less value now than ever before in the gameís existence, and he basically needs to succeed in leveraging those abilities to the maximum extent possible in order to avoid being a liability to the lineup.
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  #214  
Old 10-13-2019, 01:01 PM
blurry blurry is offline
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Pretty much all the mock drafts had him going high no matter what. I'm willing to bet all of the other clubs also had him high on their boards, so front offices around baseball thought he had tremendous potential as well.

I think you're being more pessimistic than just about everyone regarding Madrigal. You might be right, but we'll see.
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  #215  
Old 10-13-2019, 09:20 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Boston, the Yankees, Houston before Springer got hurt and Alvarez came up, it happens. #2 should be your best hitter, leadoff should be next-best, #4 next. #3 and #5 are roughly the same, with #5 being slightly more important because of those 2-out, nobody on at-bats in the 1st inning from the #3 guy.

League average OPS was .780 out of the leadoff spot. If Madrigal slugs under .400, which I think is a very real possibility, his OBP needs to be over .380 just to provide average leadoff production.
Mookie for Boston, Lindor for CLE, Tatis for SD, and Acuna for ATL. Yankees best hitter is Judge and HOU's best hitter is Bregman, they don't lead off.

Why would you have your #5 hitter be better than your #3? If you are trying to come back in the 9th, you don't want that guy further down in the lineup and just overall getting fewer ABs. The 1st inning also has the most scoring of any inning, so the #3 hitter obviously has a lot to do with that.

I prefer having the highest OBP guys at the top (with some speed), power guys behind them.

Sure, league average OPS is that at #1, but all OPS's aren't created equal. A player with a .370 OBP and .410 SLG is better than a .320 OBP and .460 SLG.
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  #216  
Old 10-13-2019, 10:50 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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OK, but if that .410 SLG is only about .375, weíre talking about a bottom-order hitter.

Something like .300/.375/.375 with an excellent glove is playable, but itís not getting you into that 5 WAR territory. Itís probably closer to 3 WAR territory. An upgrade over Yolmer to be sure, but Iím also not convinced that Yolmer will be as bad a hitter as he was last year, and he put up 2.1 WAR himself.

Weíre looking at what, a 1-1.5 WAR upgrade at 2B, and that assumes a seamless transition from AAA to MLB and a maxing-out of Madrigalís skill set?
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  #217  
Old 10-14-2019, 12:28 AM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
OK, but if that .410 SLG is only about .375, weíre talking about a bottom-order hitter.

Something like .300/.375/.375 with an excellent glove is playable, but itís not getting you into that 5 WAR territory. Itís probably closer to 3 WAR territory. An upgrade over Yolmer to be sure, but Iím also not convinced that Yolmer will be as bad a hitter as he was last year, and he put up 2.1 WAR himself.

Weíre looking at what, a 1-1.5 WAR upgrade at 2B, and that assumes a seamless transition from AAA to MLB and a maxing-out of Madrigalís skill set?
For minimum wage for the next 3 years. It also has salary implications.

And that should be Nick's absolute floor. If he develops some gap power as he showed all through college and the minors that SLG will start to climb again.
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  #218  
Old 10-14-2019, 01:06 AM
KRS1 KRS1 is offline
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Yolmer has regressed two straight seasons. He is what he is, which although probably closer to 2018, is still not good and heís going to strike out at least five times as much as Nick will. He and Mendick need to split time backing up the IF.

This Astros-Yanks game reminded me how much I hate three outcome baseball and how badly people are killing themselves selling out for HRs instead of just hitting the damn ball. Awesome that it ended with a 11th inning HR when the previous 60 people to take the bat off their damn shoulders all looked like dumbasses swinging out of their boots.
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  #219  
Old 10-14-2019, 01:20 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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For minimum wage for the next 3 years. It also has salary implications.

And that should be Nick's absolute floor. If he develops some gap power as he showed all through college and the minors that SLG will start to climb again.
Any prospect’s “absolute floor” is ending up out of baseball within a year or two, not a .750+ OPS. And I see something like a a .275/.325/.375 slash as entirely possible, especially early in his career.

The only guy in this team’s minor league system who would shock me if he never amounted to anything is Luis Robert. Everybody else is just a prospect until proven otherwise.
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  #220  
Old 10-14-2019, 10:47 AM
Heffalump Heffalump is offline
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OK, but if that .410 SLG is only about .375, we’re talking about a bottom-order hitter.

Something like .300/.375/.375 with an excellent glove is playable, but it’s not getting you into that 5 WAR territory.
Silliest statements I've read in a while.
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  #221  
Old 10-14-2019, 10:53 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Silliest statements I've read in a while.
Which part? The part where a .750-ish OPS doesnít get you 5 WAR, or the part where a .750-ish OPS belongs at the end of the order instead of the beginning?
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  #222  
Old 10-14-2019, 10:56 AM
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FYI, Madrigal just won the minor league gold glove award from Rawlings.
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  #223  
Old 10-14-2019, 11:33 AM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Overall, I feel like Madrigal is just one of the more interesting prospects in a while due to his high batting average combined with his ridiculously low K rate in a time where K's have never been higher and BA seems to be lower. There really isn't a comp to him currently in the game today. He's really a combo of Placido Polanco, Ichiro, Chuck Knoblauch, David Eckstein, and Pete Rose. At the end of the day, I see him getting a lot of hits in all situations, that's what he's excelled at every level so far in his life. It's very likely that his OPS will fluctuate between low .700s to low .800s year by year with a relatively high BA between .280 and .330. He will likely be the best situational hitter on the team very early on, maybe even right away, which is crucial for winning ball clubs. All of this, while being a great defender and savvy baserunner. As pretty much every scout and publication has said, he has a very high floor.
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  #224  
Old 10-14-2019, 12:29 PM
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DumpJerry DumpJerry is offline
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Originally Posted by KRS1 View Post
Yolmer has regressed two straight seasons. He is what he is, which although probably closer to 2018, is still not good and heís going to strike out at least five times as much as Nick will. He and Mendick need to split time backing up the IF.
Wait. Your post is implying that past performance is no indicator of future production? Impossible, I have been told.

Even in the financial investment world, we know that past performance is a dead ringer for future returns. Right?
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  #225  
Old 10-14-2019, 03:09 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...es-taylor.html

MLBTR notes on Rendon says he's actually more interested in a high paying shorter term deal.

If there was ever a high level free agent who'd take one of our short term deals, this is it.

Love Madrigal, but Rendon is an MVP caliber player. If this can happen, you use Madrigal as trade bait and move Moncada back to 2nd.
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