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  #46  
Old 06-03-2019, 09:54 AM
MISoxfan MISoxfan is offline
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Originally Posted by asindc View Post
Well, the point I was speaking to is the notion that Abreu (or anyone else) leading the league in RBI is just a matter of happenstance, not due to anything in particularly he is doing. The fact that his batting average is much higher in RISP situations suggests that he is adjusting his approach in those situations. In other words, it is a proactive approach on his part and not a matter of coincidence, especially when you consider that 21 other players have had more opportunities to drive in runs than he has.
It's only 55 at bats. He's also hitting .333/.343/.788 the 4th inning over 33 at bats. Does the fact that his batting average is so much higher in the 4th inning suggest that he his adjusting his approach in those situations? In other words, is it a proactive approach on his part and not a matter of coincidence?

There is also the often overlooked point that almost every hitter hits for a higher average with runners in scoring position because a flyout always hurts your batting average when there are no runners on, but it usually doesn't with RISP.

Abreu is just slumping though and is probably at the low point of his season. In a month things could look entirely different anyway.
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  #47  
Old 06-03-2019, 10:09 AM
asindc asindc is offline
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Originally Posted by MISoxfan View Post
It's only 55 at bats. He's also hitting .333/.343/.788 the 4th inning over 33 at bats. Does the fact that his batting average is so much higher in the 4th inning suggest that he his adjusting his approach in those situations? In other words, is it a proactive approach on his part and not a matter of coincidence?

There is also the often overlooked point that almost every hitter hits for a higher average with runners in scoring position because a flyout always hurts your batting average when there are no runners on, but it usually doesn't with RISP.

Abreu is just slumping though and is probably at the low point of his season. In a month things could look entirely different anyway.
55 ABs are 23.7% of his ABs this season. If you think it is just mere coincidence that he leads the AL in RBI despite the fact that 21 other players have had more such opportunities and the Sox are 11th in OBP in the AL, well, we will just have to disagree.
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  #48  
Old 06-03-2019, 10:12 AM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Originally Posted by thomas35forever View Post
Isn't Abreu leading the American League in RBIs? What exactly are you looking for in him? Are you saying this because he's batting .246 and has a .292 OBP?
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
The White Sox are 19th in MLB in OPS+ from the #3 spot in the lineup.

Runs scored and RBI are too dependent on the rest of the team to be of much use to judge an individual.
Correct.
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  #49  
Old 06-03-2019, 10:49 AM
MISoxfan MISoxfan is offline
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Originally Posted by asindc View Post
55 ABs are 23.7% of his ABs this season. If you think it is just mere coincidence that he leads the AL in RBI despite the fact that 21 other players have had more such opportunities and the Sox are 11th in OBP in the AL, well, we will just have to disagree.
I think that hitters almost always hit better with RISP and that if you plot the difference in batting average and batting average with RISP you'll end up with something approaching a normal distribution with something like 15.7% doing 1 standard deviation better than expected and that those 15.7% are likely to change from year to year.

There is probably some small degree that a player can influence this, but if a hitter who can normally only hit .250 can adjust his approach to hit .330 with RISP then he should probably always use the second approach.

In fact, if Abreu is really making an adjustment that is allowing him to hit .327/.349/.600 with RISP it kind of makes me angry that he isn't always doing it.
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  #50  
Old 06-03-2019, 11:03 AM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Originally Posted by MISoxfan View Post
I think that hitters almost always hit better with RISP and that if you plot the difference in batting average and batting average with RISP you'll end up with something approaching a normal distribution with something like 15.7% doing 1 standard deviation better than expected and that those 15.7% are likely to change from year to year.

There is probably some small degree that a player can influence this, but if a hitter who can normally only hit .250 can adjust his approach to hit .330 with RISP then he should probably always use the second approach.

In fact, if Abreu is really making an adjustment that is allowing him to hit .327/.349/.600 with RISP it kind of makes me angry that he isn't always doing it.
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  #51  
Old 06-03-2019, 11:11 AM
asindc asindc is offline
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Originally Posted by MISoxfan View Post
I think that hitters almost always hit better with RISP and that if you plot the difference in batting average and batting average with RISP you'll end up with something approaching a normal distribution with something like 15.7% doing 1 standard deviation better than expected and that those 15.7% are likely to change from year to year.

There is probably some small degree that a player can influence this, but if a hitter who can normally only hit .250 can adjust his approach to hit .330 with RISP then he should probably always use the second approach.

In fact, if Abreu is really making an adjustment that is allowing him to hit .327/.349/.600 with RISP it kind of makes me angry that he isn't always doing it.
1) Has this been done?

2) Every player who has ever taken AB has had the ability to influence it.
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  #52  
Old 06-03-2019, 11:21 AM
MISoxfan MISoxfan is offline
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Originally Posted by asindc View Post
1) Has this been done?

2) Every player who has ever taken AB has had the ability to influence it.
I don't know, but that's a good question. Plotting it would be easy enough, but determining whether individual players are consistently on the tail ends would take a lot of work.

Also, obviously I know that the player's have the ability to influence what they do with the bat. What I doubt is the ability to be significantly better with RISP than without. And again, if you have that ability I think it would be better to always use it.
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  #53  
Old 06-03-2019, 11:46 AM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Originally Posted by MISoxfan View Post
I don't know, but that's a good question. Plotting it would be easy enough, but determining whether individual players are consistently on the tail ends would take a lot of work.

Also, obviously I know that the player's have the ability to influence what they do with the bat. What I doubt is the ability to be significantly better with RISP than without. And again, if you have that ability I think it would be better to always use it.
It probably has as much to do with heightened concentration by the hitter knowing they can make an immediate impact and the pitcher being forced to use slide steps, be more careful with breaking pitches to not throw a wild pitch and of course their concentration being split by having runners on base as well as a man at the plate to think about.

But, that's all just speculation on my part. I do agree if a hitter is taking an approach that has that kind of dramatic impact on their numbers they should be using it all the time.
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  #54  
Old 06-03-2019, 11:57 AM
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Chez Chez is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
It probably has as much to do with heightened concentration by the hitter knowing they can make an immediate impact and the pitcher being forced to use slide steps, be more careful with breaking pitches to not throw a wild pitch and of course their concentration being split by having runners on base as well as a man at the plate to think about.

But, that's all just speculation on my part. I do agree if a hitter is taking an approach that has that kind of dramatic impact on their numbers they should be using it all the time.
I'll toss in some speculation too. Perhaps the difference in the numbers is a byproduct of the "grip it and rip it" mentality that has taken over the game in the last couple of years. With no one on or a runner on first, Abreu is (as many have encouraged) swinging for the fences. With RISP, he cuts down on his swing, tries to beat the shift and increases his focus (the latter factor would seem to also be attributable to human nature). It may also be that most pitchers (especially starting pitchers) are more effective out of the wind-up than the stretch.
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  #55  
Old 06-03-2019, 12:00 PM
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I just bought tickets behind the Sox dugout for tomorrow night's game against the Nationals. Reynaldo against his former team. Some guy named Strasburg pitching for the Nats.

Let's hope Lopez starts figuring things out again.
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  #56  
Old 06-03-2019, 01:47 PM
asindc asindc is offline
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I just bought tickets behind the Sox dugout for tomorrow night's game against the Nationals. Reynaldo against his former team. Some guy named Strasburg pitching for the Nats.

Let's hope Lopez starts figuring things out again.
I'll be there tomorrow as well. It would have been very nice if Giolito could have pitched one of the next two games, but oh well.
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  #57  
Old 06-03-2019, 01:54 PM
LITTLE NELL LITTLE NELL is offline
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Originally Posted by Chez View Post
I'll toss in some speculation too. Perhaps the difference in the numbers is a byproduct of the "grip it and rip it" mentality that has taken over the game in the last couple of years. With no one on or a runner on first, Abreu is (as many have encouraged) swinging for the fences. With RISP, he cuts down on his swing, tries to beat the shift and increases his focus (the latter factor would seem to also be attributable to human nature). It may also be that most pitchers (especially starting pitchers) are more effective out of the wind-up than the stretch.
My guess is that by the end of the season, Jose will end up hitting at his career norms.
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  #58  
Old 06-03-2019, 11:08 PM
guillensdisciple guillensdisciple is offline
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I am glad we are doing what we are doing but everything until the all star break is going to be difficult and we haven't exactly killed it against top tier teams.

Let's hope we can hover near .500
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  #59  
Old 06-03-2019, 11:12 PM
hoosiersoxfan hoosiersoxfan is offline
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Originally Posted by LITTLE NELL View Post
My guess is that by the end of the season, Jose will end up hitting at his career norms.
Year in and year out he is consistent with his numbers. Only last year they were less and that was because of "testicular torsion"

The guy is a pro that you can pencil in the lineup every day and know that at the end of the season the production will be there.
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  #60  
Old 06-03-2019, 11:23 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Year in and year out he is consistent with his numbers. Only last year they were less and that was because of "testicular torsion"

The guy is a pro that you can pencil in the lineup every day and know that at the end of the season the production will be there.
Yes. You can practically set your watch to it.

He gives you league-average offensive production for a 1B at worst, a cut above league-average production for a 1B at best, and is prone to extended slumps.
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