Lineup concern

[Zakath]

Originally Posted by mcm3312

At what point do we swap Pierzynski and Dunn in the lineup. Similar OBP and obviously AJ makes a lot more contact/kills less rallys. I would say swap Dunn and Rios, but we all know Rios is a head case.

We do?

[Zakath]

Originally Posted by LITTLE NELL

I guess we should not make any moves right now but Dunn is driving me crazy with all these strikeouts. Are there any other #3 hitters in MLB batting .210 with a gazillion Ks.

What's more important is not how many times he strikes out, it's WHEN he strikes out.

So far this year:
Bases empty - 29-164, 37 BB, 81 K, .177 AVG, .328 OBP, .767 OPS
Runners on - 31-122, 29 BB, 49 K, .254 AVG, .396 OBP, 1.003 OPS

Historically, Dunn hits .243 with bases empty and .241 with runners on. To see him hitting 77 points HIGHER when there are runners on is a big positive.

Another big number for him - With men on 3rd and less than 2 outs, he's hitting .571 (8-14).

[34rancher]

Originally Posted by Zakath

What's more important is not how many times he strikes out, it's WHEN he strikes out.

So far this year:
Bases empty - 29-164, 37 BB, 81 K, .177 AVG, .328 OBP, .767 OPS
Runners on - 31-122, 29 BB, 49 K, .254 AVG, .396 OBP, 1.003 OPS

Historically, Dunn hits .243 with bases empty and .241 with runners on. To see him hitting 77 points HIGHER when there are runners on is a big positive.

Another big number for him - With men on 3rd and less than 2 outs, he's hitting .571 (8-14).

So he has more strikeouts with runners on than anyone else on the team? How does his line compare on team?

[FoulTerritory]

Originally Posted by Zakath

What's more important is not how many times he strikes out, it's WHEN he strikes out.

So far this year:
Bases empty - 29-164, 37 BB, 81 K, .177 AVG, .328 OBP, .767 OPS
Runners on - 31-122, 29 BB, 49 K, .254 AVG, .396 OBP, 1.003 OPS

Historically, Dunn hits .243 with bases empty and .241 with runners on. To see him hitting 77 points HIGHER when there are runners on is a big positive.

Another big number for him - With men on 3rd and less than 2 outs, he's hitting .571 (8-14).

These are interesting numbers. I appreciate the concrete evidence and admit that it makes the case stronger for Dunn remaining in the 3 hole (way more logical than the "we're doing good so don't change" argument).

It just seems like over the last month there has been a lot of slippage from him, even in RBI situations. I don't have numbers to back that up though.

Its weird, because generally I'm very optimistic about the Sox, but when I watch Dunn bat now I start getting flashbacks to last year. It just looks like, with his pull approach and correspondent slump, that he is at risk of a serious backslide.

[TheVulture]

I'd rather have the good hitters batting behind Dunn to clean up the runners Dunn leaves on or to punish the pitcher for letting Dunn walk. I doubt Dunn or Konerko would have been this effective thus far if Ventura had even just decided to switch those two from the start. And as much as I love what AJ has done with the bat, I'm not sure we can count on him to deliver the same numbers the rest of the way. This hot season has to be grinding on even a tough catcher like AJ.

[Zakath]

Originally Posted by 34rancher

So he has more strikeouts with runners on than anyone else on the team? How does his line compare on team?

Compare it to Paulie, AJ, and Alex:

Paulie:
Bases empty - 54-157, 17 BB, 21 K, .344 AVG, .415 OBP, 1.007 OPS
Runners on - 39-121, 15 BB, 21 K, .322 AVG, .401 OBP, .873 OPS

AJ:
Bases empty - 37-147, 10 BB, 19 K, .252, .299, .769
Runners on - 37-110, 8 BB, 18 K, .336, .385, 1.003

Alex:
Bases empty - 46-170, 4 BB, 33 K, .271, .299, .752
Runners on - 52-141, 9 BB, 10 K, .369, .405, .980

The team as a whole is 3rd in MLB in average with runners on at .284 (only Colorado and Texas are better) and 12th best in strikeouts with runners on (245; KC's the best with 217 while St. Louis is the worst with 294). With bases empty, we're 21st in MLB at .242 and 7th worst in strikeouts (393; Pittsburgh's the worst with 453 while the best is KC with 288).

Big crooked numbers win games, and you need to string hits together to get them. Hitting with guys on is the only way to do that, and that's a good reason why we're 9 games over.

[white sox bill]

We knew what we were getting w/Dunn, the last pitch thrown to him is usually in the catchers mitt or in the seats. I wish his average was in the .250 range though. Paulie has cooled off but we cant expect him to hit .400 all yr

That being said, I'm fine w/the lineup

[34rancher]

Originally Posted by Zakath

Compare it to Paulie, AJ, and Alex:

Paulie:
Bases empty - 54-157, 17 BB, 21 K, .344 AVG, .415 OBP, 1.007 OPS
Runners on - 39-121, 15 BB, 21 K, .322 AVG, .401 OBP, .873 OPS

AJ:
Bases empty - 37-147, 10 BB, 19 K, .252, .299, .769
Runners on - 37-110, 8 BB, 18 K, .336, .385, 1.003

Alex:
Bases empty - 46-170, 4 BB, 33 K, .271, .299, .752
Runners on - 52-141, 9 BB, 10 K, .369, .405, .980

The team as a whole is 3rd in MLB in average with runners on at .284 (only Colorado and Texas are better) and 12th best in strikeouts with runners on (245; KC's the best with 217 while St. Louis is the worst with 294). With bases empty, we're 21st in MLB at .242 and 7th worst in strikeouts (393; Pittsburgh's the worst with 453 while the best is KC with 288).

Big crooked numbers win games, and you need to string hits together to get them. Hitting with guys on is the only way to do that, and that's a good reason why we're 9 games over.

Wow. Alex is ridiculous this year. AJ really helping him too behind him. I agree about the crooked numbers.
What I wish I could find is how many of dunns walks lead to runs. 66 walks and 35 hits have led to him scoring 22 times. I wonder though how many times the runner on base ahead of him when he walks have scored when he hasn't?

[Tragg]

Originally Posted by mcm3312

At what point do we swap Pierzynski and Dunn in the lineup. Similar OBP and obviously AJ makes a lot more contact/kills less rallys. I would say swap Dunn and Rios, but we all know Rios is a head case.

GO

AJ isn't a 3 hole hitter.
I don't think Rios is a head case in the sense that he can't take change or pressure; I think it's more of an effort issue. Switch Dunn and Rios.

[TomBradley72]

Originally Posted by mcm3312

At what point do we swap Pierzynski and Dunn in the lineup. Similar OBP and obviously AJ makes a lot more contact/kills less rallys. I would say swap Dunn and Rios, but we all know Rios is a head case.

De Aza
Youkdawg
AJ
Paulie
Rios
Dunn
Tanky Tank
Alexei
Beckham

GO

Kind of bull**** to rip on Rios- the guy has been our best all around player this year- hit, hit for power, run, field,throw- he's been great and completely consistent.

Last year was a disaster for him- as it was for Dunn, Peavy and alot of other players on this team-

As far as changing the line up- I wouldn't touch it unless Dunn's slump continues and the overall team starts to struggle- but not now.

[kufram]

I think if Robin's idea is to have a plan and stick with it then we have to acknowledge that it is a good idea. He saw what he needed to see to stick with Beckham and Viciedo, and others, at the start of the season and it has worked out pretty well so far. Taking where he has steered us so far into account I'm happy for him to stick with his lineup and I'll be happy if he decides to change it.

A manager can't react to every trend in a hitter's season. Baseball is a streaky sport... especially hitting. If you change it up whenever one guy in the lineup is on a little slide or on a hot streak for that matter you end up without a lineup... just a list of names that keep changing.

[Madscout]

I'd be interested to see how many runs we're getting from the bottom half of the order. Suppose moving Dunn messes with that production. Anecdotally, I seem to remember a lot of runs coming off of AJ's bat, Rios, and Alexi's...perhaps screwing with that is not a good idea?

In the end, it doesn't matter where you score them, but I'd rather have the lineup tough from top to bottom...and it seems to be as such as it is now.

[kobo]

Originally Posted by Tragg

AJ isn't a 3 hole hitter.
I don't think Rios is a head case in the sense that he can't take change or pressure; I think it's more of an effort issue. Switch Dunn and Rios.

Then you have 2 left handed hitters batting 5 and 6. I don't like that because then in a late game situation the opposing team could bring in a LOOGY to face Dunn and AJ.

[Tragg]

Originally Posted by kobo

Then you have 2 left handed hitters batting 5 and 6. I don't like that because then in a late game situation the opposing team could bring in a LOOGY to face Dunn and AJ.

Good point.
Leave them alone then. Dunn's walks make him okay in the 3 hole. AJ just doesn't get on base enough to bat 3rd.

[TDog]

Originally Posted by Tragg

Good point.
Leave them alone then. Dunn's walks make him okay in the 3 hole. AJ just doesn't get on base enough to bat 3rd.

I don't know that Dunn even gets on base enough to bat third. I think he bats third to give the Sox a chance to get on the board in the first inning with a home run.

Dunn's numbers are skewed by a relatively quick start. He was hitting around .230 through May when De Aza was getting on base a lot. Even his on-base percentage is more than 20 points lower since the end of May, while his batting average has dropped about 20 points. His batting average is well below .200 since the end of May, although it is still better than what he was doing in June and early July last year. He also was striking out at a lower rate early in the season. He is hitting more home runs, of course, but he is striking out at a greater rate than last year. He is on pace to shatter the single season strikeout record, set by Mark Reynolds in a season where Dunn finished second to him in NL strikeouts.

To put the strikeouts in perspective, Mickey Mantle once held the record for career strikeouts before it was eventually broken by Reggie Jackson. Dunn already has eight more strikeouts than Mantle ever recorded in a season (a year he hit .285 and had an on-base percentage of .390 -- his poor season being one of the reasons the Yankees didn't keep the White Sox from going to the World Series), and he is on pace to surpass Jackson's highest strikeout year (his first full season in the majors) in early August.

I have read that Ventura has said Dunn is striking out more and hitting less because he is more pull-conscious than he was early in the season, and he should come around. That implies that Dunn is working on striking out less and hitting for a higher average. Part of it, too, may be that the Sox are facing more left-handed starters. Dunn hits better against left-handed starters than left-handed relievers, often pitchers who are employed solely because they can get left-handed hitters out. Late in the game, opposing teams often bring in a lefty if De Aza is leading off and Dunn is in the hole. Some teams bring in lefties just to face Dunn. He is doing better against lefties than last year, but he is not doing well.

If Dunn this year wasn't being compared to Dunn last year, he would be seen as having a dismal year, or at least mired in a terrible slump. But there is room for improvement, and maybe he will return to a more productive form. He needs to be a better third-place hitter, but I don't know if moving other players around in the order would do the team much good.