Lineup concern

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by Zakath

The most interesting one is Alexei, hitting mostly in the 7th and 8th spots, who has contributed 74 (32 runs scored, 44 RBI with only 2 HR), which is more than Paulie or AJ (39 scored, 49 RBI but with 16 HR for 72 runs contributed). Viciedo has 60, Beckham 67. Youkilis, in 13 games, has 21.

Even when Alexei was hitting in the low .200s, he was still hitting .350-ish with RISP.

[34rancher]

Originally Posted by kobo

Who cares about history? I care about what Dunn is doing for the team this year, not what other guys back in the day did. You continue to pine away for something Dunn has never been, a .300 hitter. He wasn't one when the Sox signed him, he's never going to be, and everyone knew this. What is important is that he hits homeruns, drives in runners, and gets on base. So he strikes out a ton; again this is not something new. I'd like to know how many times he's struck out with RISP, as that could lead to a legitimate argument.

See here is where I somewhat disagree. To me what is important is WHEN he hits home runs, drives in runners, and gets on base. The Sammy Sosa home run when up by 6 or solo shot in a losing effort is meaningless. Getting an rbi when down 1 or being the ultimate difference run in the game is to me far more important. When we have a man on second and less than 2 outs, I don't want a walk, I want a base hit. I want that run to score, not set up a possible GBDP or Fielder's Choice at 3rd.
Adam Dunn has 61 hits, 68 walks, 1 HBP. meaning he has been on base 130 times. He has scored 48 times (25 from his home runs). That is not bad. I would love to see an analysis on home many of these were meaningful though. I know early in the season he was carrying the team in a few games. Lately, though, he has been as much of a difference maker as Fukudome, even though he's not here. The strikeouts are certainly alarming. To me, the walks are almost as bad, not because he is getting on base, but because I feel like he is not even looking to hit and hoping to be bailed out by the pitcher. If his perfect pitch comes on pitch 1 or pitch 10, I want him as out #3 hitter to swing, not hope for a walk.
That all being said, I hope the All star visit does more than the selection has done for him. Since he was selected, he's been nonexistent.

[TomBradley72]

I am becoming increasingly concerned with Dunn-

1. Steady decline month by month- .231 April, .230 May, ,181 June, .143 July
2. Hitting ~50 points below average he had in his last two years at Washington (age? AL pitching?)
3. Hitting .157 vs. LHP, 1/3 of his appearances- in the 3 hole- that's pretty bad.
4. Dunn is 12th on the White Sox in batting average w/RISP- .237 (last among the starters)- only Escobar, Fukodome, Lillibridge, Flowers, Morel have been worse. But he is #3 in RBIs for that split.

Robin has proven to be pretty decisive when he sees a problem and takes action to fix it- if we get a few weeks into the 2nd half and Dunn isn't turning it around- I'd like to see him moved down to the 5th/6th slot and sitting against LHPs more than he has so far this year.

[ChiTownTrojan]

I am fine with Dunn hitting 3rd vs. RHP. He's been very productive this year in that spot. But his splits vs. LHP are awful for the second year in a row. His OPS is almost 300 points lower against lefties than righties (.958 vs. .669). Yes, Escobar has a better OPS vs. LHP (.771), albeit in a much smaller sample size.

Against LHP, I'd like to see Youk at #3, Escobar/Beckham at #2, and Dunn further down in the order (or occasionally on the bench). I think this would maximize the potential of the lineup.

[kittle42]

Originally Posted by TDog

[snip, snip]

The White Sox, though, are stuck with Dunn.

Wait, wait, wait - I thought runs and wins were the only important stats per some of your older posts. Do other stats become important only when you want to rip Adam Dunn for not being the type of player he never has been?

[TaylorStSox]

TDog's hatred of Dunn > my hatred of AJ. That's quite the accomplishment.

[TomBradley72]

Originally Posted by kittle42

Wait, wait, wait - I thought runs and wins were the only important stats per some of your older posts. Do other stats become important only when you want to rip Adam Dunn for not being the type of player he never has been?

But he IS hitting about 50 points below his last 2 seasons with Washington and about 30-40 points below his pre-White Sox career average.

In April/May he was the "player he always has been"- but for the rest of his tenure with the White Sox- he hasn't been.

[TDog]

Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187

Perhaps you can explain this to me, I have often heard that RBIs are a useless stat and that it is runs scored that is the important one because it is not a player's fault that there is no one on base for him to drive in. But it seems to me that the same argument can be applied there as well. He is still going to need someone to drive him in unless he can steal home several dozen times. Why is that RBIs are no longer an important stat for hitters but runs scored are? And I should clarify that while you specifically are not making this argument I have read a lot of saber metric guys make that very argument.

The premise that RBIs are unimportant comes from the perspective of using RBI to predict future productivity. But what stats tell you is what players have done. Generally, at the end of the season, the player who drives in the most runs is the team's offensive MVP. But if you are looking to acquire a player from another team, RBIs might not transfer into your lineup, the RBIs might not transfer. Not only have the runs already been driven in, but they have been driven in in the context of another lineup. Runs scored can be viewed similarly. You can get on base with no one behind you to drive you in.

There should be no question that if you are judging a player's contribution to a team's offense that RBIs is one of the stats you look at. Of course, it is going to depend on players getting on base in front of you, if you subtract the home runs. Some RBIs are easier than others and all are not created equal, and it isn't always about hits with runners in scoring position. When Ramirez grounded out to drive in a runner from third Thursday, it tied the game against the Rangers. When Dunn grounded out to drive in a runner from third Sunday against Toronto, the Blue jays conceded a run that made the score 8-4. But a productive out from Viciedo after Ramirez's two-run triple in the same inning would have tied the game.

The idea is that all the raw stats accumulated in 19-2 and 2-1 games alike are just as meaningful. The problem I have is that stats taken in isolation don't reflect that they are taken from situations where circumstances differed. RBIs are influence by where you bat in the lineup and who you play for, but for many players, so is just about everything else. Ultimately, it's a matter of not how many a hitter hits but when he hits them. I don't believe stats make the MVPs, but winning games does. That applies to OPS (see Albert Belle, 1998) as well as RBIs.

Nonetheless, Dunn this year has a batting average of .237 with runners in scoring position. He has driven in no more than 28 of the 107 runners that have been in scoring position during his at bats. Konerko has come up with 85 runners in scoring position, driving in no more than 25 of them with an RISP BA of .355. Ramirez, despite doing so poorly offensively overall so deep into the season, has come up with 100 runners in scoring position, has an RISP BA of .397 and has driven in no more than 35 of them.

Tell Ramirez his RBIs are a meaningless stat, but for his career he has hit .277 overall and .306 with runners in scoring position.

[kittle42]

Originally Posted by TDog

The idea is that all the raw stats accumulated in 19-2 and 2-1 games alike are just as meaningful. The problem I have is that stats taken in isolation don't reflect that they are taken from situations where circumstances differed.

I think shoota believed a version of this.

[SouthSideSid]

I've worried about other moves that Robin has made this year, but then I realize where the team is at. In Robin I trust - MOY.

[TDog]

Originally Posted by kittle42

I think shoota believed a version of this.

Yes, if you want to take what I've written out of context.

[JB98]

Originally Posted by TDog

I am concerned that Konerko hasn't been hitting, and I'm worried that his wrist might not be healthy. But Konerko has a much better approach at the plate than Dunn does.

I guess I fail to see how Dunn's strikeouts are more harmful to the team than Konerko's weak grounders and popouts. We need more impactful base hits from both players, because Rios, Youkilis and Ramirez can't stay hot forever.

The Sox have played very well lately considering they've gotten little from 3 and 4 in their lineup over the last four or five weeks.

[UofCSoxFan]

Originally Posted by JB98

I guess I fail to see how Dunn's strikeouts are more harmful to the team than Konerko's weak grounders and popouts. We need more impactful base hits from both players, because Rios, Youkilis and Ramirez can't stay hot forever.

The Sox have played very well lately considering they've gotten little from 3 and 4 in their lineup over the last four or five weeks.

I agree....to me Dunn's strikeouts are overblown because most fans still apply what we were taught growing up....to shorten up our swings and put the ball in play and see what happens. And at the Little League through high school level this holds since home runs are few and far between and errors are common. But at the major league level, where people don't make errors more than 7% or 8% of the time, a much rather have my power hitters swing for the fences every time. Dunn isn't going to beat out hits, and the marginal increase in run expectancy is much less than the chance of Dunn hitting a two strike home run...especially when you also account for the likelihood of a double play.

[TDog]

Originally Posted by JB98

I guess I fail to see how Dunn's strikeouts are more harmful to the team than Konerko's weak grounders and popouts. We need more impactful base hits from both players, because Rios, Youkilis and Ramirez can't stay hot forever.

Some of Konerko's pop-ups do drop in for hits. Some of his ground balls go through the infield, and some of his weak groundouts advance runners to second base. Konerko has only struck out 11 times since the end of May. Dunn is giving away a ridiculous number of at bats through his approach. He has struck out nine times in six games in July and 52 times since he finished May a .230 hitter with power, approaching his career norms. When the count is full on Konerko, you can start a runner on first with less than two outs because he doesn't strike out as often, minimizing the chance of him hitting into a double play and advancing the runner if he hits it on the ground. Indeed, Konerko has grounded into only one double play this season with a full count, and I believe the runner was going, but he hit the ball so hard, the defense was still able to turn it.

Konerko has developed a great approach at the plate. He hasn't been the same since he sat out because of his hand, and seems to have been playing through some pain since. Konerko isn't giving away at bats, which Dunn does on a regular basis. Fans complain about players sacrificing, but players who go up to the plate not adjusting for the count, not shortening their swings with two strikes, not taking outside pitches the other way when that is all pitchers are giving them and end up striking out as a result are giving away outs. Dunn need only step out of the batter's box, look at where the defense is playing him and see that there are a lot of hits out there if he puts the ball in play.

The reason I believe Dunn has become an offensive black hole while Konerko is only struggling is that while Konerko appears to be playing through some pain, he also appears to be approaching every at bat looking to do what is needed to help the team offensively. Dunn appears to be 100 percent and doesn't see to care about anything other than his home run total when he steps up to the plate.

[Tragg]

Originally Posted by TDog

The premise that RBIs are unimportant comes from the perspective of using RBI to predict future productivity.

No, it comes from the reality that an RBI is based to a large extent on what others have done or what they will do in running the bases. If they aren't on base, you aren't getting a RBI, unless you hit a homer. OPS with runners in scoring position is a better stat, although I think for most hitters, OPS with runners in scoring position will approximate their OPS in all circumstances, over the long-haul.