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  #61  
Old 02-13-2013, 03:53 PM
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Nellie_Fox Nellie_Fox is offline
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Guys, please, if you screw up the quote function by deleting part of the quote commands while cutting out text, either click the edit button and go back and fix it, or if you don't know how, delete the whole post and do it over again. But don't let it sit there screwed up! If you can't do either, then DON'T cut quotes before posting them. Just leave them alone.

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  #62  
Old 02-13-2013, 07:53 PM
russ99 russ99 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dickallen15 View Post
Considering it was his first full season and he is only 23, he did OK.
Getting tired of this excuse. He has 762 PA's over three years. He wasn't rookie-eligible last year.

When Dunn was 23, he hit 27/57 with a relatively close line to Viciedo of .215/.354/.465 (granted worse BA and better OPB) with more total PAs that Viciedo has now.

Conversely, when Frank was 23, he hit 32/109 and .318/.443/.553 with a handful more PA's that Viciedo has now.

That he's 23 has only a little bearing on his past vs. future performance, and I still doubt we'll see him hitting for average, with quality at-bats, plate patience and fewer K's anytime soon.

I'd be happy with any improvement.
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  #63  
Old 02-14-2013, 05:50 AM
dickallen15 dickallen15 is offline
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Originally Posted by russ99 View Post
Getting tired of this excuse. He has 762 PA's over three years. He wasn't rookie-eligible last year.

When Dunn was 23, he hit 27/57 with a relatively close line to Viciedo of .215/.354/.465 (granted worse BA and better OPB) with more total PAs that Viciedo has now.

Conversely, when Frank was 23, he hit 32/109 and .318/.443/.553 with a handful more PA's that Viciedo has now.

That he's 23 has only a little bearing on his past vs. future performance, and I still doubt we'll see him hitting for average, with quality at-bats, plate patience and fewer K's anytime soon.

I'd be happy with any improvement.
Yeah, I don't know what I was thinking. 23 year olds usually are what they are after their first full year. You are lucky if they improve at all.
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  #64  
Old 02-14-2013, 09:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by russ99 View Post
Getting tired of this excuse. He has 762 PA's over three years. He wasn't rookie-eligible last year.

When Dunn was 23, he hit 27/57 with a relatively close line to Viciedo of .215/.354/.465 (granted worse BA and better OPB) with more total PAs that Viciedo has now.

Conversely, when Frank was 23, he hit 32/109 and .318/.443/.553 with a handful more PA's that Viciedo has now.

That he's 23 has only a little bearing on his past vs. future performance, and I still doubt we'll see him hitting for average, with quality at-bats, plate patience and fewer K's anytime soon.

I'd be happy with any improvement.
I don't think anyone here has claimed that Viciedo is the second coming of Frank Thomas, so to try to use him as a comparison to Thomas at 23 is a little disingenuous IMO. The fact is Viciedo has had one full MLB season under his belt, so it's really not fair to say that what we saw last season is all he is capable of. There is definitely room for improvement, and he may be capable.
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  #65  
Old 02-14-2013, 09:30 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spawn View Post
I don't think anyone here has claimed that Viciedo is the second coming of Frank Thomas, so to try to use him as a comparison to Thomas at 23 is a little disingenuous IMO. The fact is Viciedo has had one full MLB season under his belt, so it's really not fair to say that what we saw last season is all he is capable of. There is definitely room for improvement, and he may be capable.
Spawn,

Can you come up with a player with a truly comparable first season to Viciedo, including K:BB ratio and contact rates, in which the player wasn't out of the league in five years?
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  #66  
Old 02-14-2013, 09:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spawn View Post
I don't think anyone here has claimed that Viciedo is the second coming of Frank Thomas, so to try to use him as a comparison to Thomas at 23 is a little disingenuous IMO. The fact is Viciedo has had one full MLB season under his belt, so it's really not fair to say that what we saw last season is all he is capable of. There is definitely room for improvement, and he may be capable.
Seriously. The idea that Viciedo may not live up to be the greatest right handed hitter in MLB history dooms him to certain fail is such over the top, drama queen nonsense.

Last year, we had people telling everyone how Dayan would never make it defensively in the Majors. He turned in one of the best years in the field at his position. The kid's going to be fine, people.
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  #67  
Old 02-14-2013, 10:25 AM
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Spawn,

Can you come up with a player with a truly comparable first season to Viciedo, including K:BB ratio and contact rates, in which the player wasn't out of the league in five years?
I'm not even going to try to. I'm not projecting greatness for Viciedo, nor am I predicting he will be a bust of epic proportions. I really don't see the need to back a position I'm not even taking. Unlike you, I'm happy watching and not getting caught up in statistical analysis and doom and gloom predictions.
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  #68  
Old 02-14-2013, 12:03 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Can you come up with a player with a truly comparable first season to Viciedo, including K:BB ratio and contact rates, in which the player wasn't out of the league in five years?
Dayan Viciedo - .255/.300/.444, 4.28 K/BB, 4.52 PA/K

Willie Stargell - .243/.290/.428, 4.47 K/BB, 3.85 PA/K (HOF)

Andre Dawson - .253/.299/.442, 4.26 K/BB, 5.15 PA/K (HOF)

Dave Parker - .282/.322/.409, 5.30 K/BB, 4.40 PA/K ('78 MVP)

Jermaine Dye - .252/.286/.394, 4.55 K/BB, 4.77 PA/K, ages 22-24 ('05 WS MVP)

Ryan Howard - horrid 3.63 PA/K at age 23...in high A ball. ('06 MVP)
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  #69  
Old 02-14-2013, 12:09 PM
ohiosoxfan ohiosoxfan is offline
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Originally Posted by TheVulture View Post
Dayan Viciedo - .255/.300/.444, 4.28 K/BB, 4.52 PA/K

Willie Stargell - .243/.290/.428, 4.47 K/BB, 3.85 PA/K (HOF)

Andre Dawson - .253/.299/.442, 4.26 K/BB, 5.15 PA/K (HOF)

Dave Parker - .282/.322/.409, 5.30 K/BB, 4.40 PA/K ('78 MVP)

Jermaine Dye - .252/.286/.394, 4.55 K/BB, 4.77 PA/K, ages 22-24 ('05 WS MVP)

Ryan Howard - horrid 3.63 PA/K at age 23...in high A ball. ('06 MVP)
How dare you let facts get in the way of an argument????
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  #70  
Old 02-14-2013, 01:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheVulture View Post
Dayan Viciedo - .255/.300/.444, 4.28 K/BB, 4.52 PA/K

Willie Stargell - .243/.290/.428, 4.47 K/BB, 3.85 PA/K (HOF)

Andre Dawson - .253/.299/.442, 4.26 K/BB, 5.15 PA/K (HOF)

Dave Parker - .282/.322/.409, 5.30 K/BB, 4.40 PA/K ('78 MVP)

Jermaine Dye - .252/.286/.394, 4.55 K/BB, 4.77 PA/K, ages 22-24 ('05 WS MVP)

Ryan Howard - horrid 3.63 PA/K at age 23...in high A ball. ('06 MVP)


Well played, Vulture, well played.
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  #71  
Old 02-14-2013, 01:16 PM
russ99 russ99 is offline
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Dayan Viciedo - .255/.300/.444, 4.28 K/BB, 4.52 PA/K - 762 PA after his age 23 season.

Willie Stargell - .243/.290/.428, 4.47 K/BB, 3.85 PA/K (HOF) - 362 PA

Andre Dawson - .253/.299/.442, 4.26 K/BB, 5.15 PA/K (HOF) - 1300+ PA, but was ROY the year before at .282/.326/.474

Dave Parker - .282/.322/.409, 5.30 K/BB, 4.40 PA/K ('78 MVP) - 377 PA

Jermaine Dye - .252/.286/.394, 4.55 K/BB, 4.77 PA/K, ages 22-24 ('05 WS MVP) - 591 PA (close)

Ryan Howard - horrid 3.63 PA/K at age 23...in high A ball. ('06 MVP)
- He was 24 in his first season with 42 PA.

Nice try.

Viciedo's comparables through age 23 are: (source: Baseball Reference)
  1. Bernie Carbo (974)
  2. Jim King (974)
  3. Tommie Agee (972)
  4. Phil Plantier (970)
  5. Mike Marshall (969)
Real scary hitters there...
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  #72  
Old 02-14-2013, 01:20 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Joe Carter, age 23 : 0 BB, 21 K, 52 AB. Small sample size, but 0 to 21 while k'ing more than 40% of the time? Hopeless

Totals through age 24: 6.27 K/BB, 4.47 PA/K

Matt Williams: .202/.245/.455, 5.14 K/BB, 4.32 PA/K(led NL in RBI following season)

Derrek Lee: .206/.263/.326, 4.11 K/BB, 3.37 PA/K ('05 Batting Champ, 8 seasons of 70+ walks)

George Foster, age 22-24: .234/.304/.373 4.50 K/BB, 4.14 PA/K('77 NL MVP)
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  #73  
Old 02-14-2013, 01:25 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Dayan Viciedo 762 PA after his age 23 season. Perhaps calling Viciedo up at age 21 was a bit early.

Willie Stargell - 362 PA - So getting his at bats in the minors somehow makes him more accomplished? Presumably, if he were called up at age 21 his ratios would be even worse.

Andre Dawson 1300+ PA, but was ROY the year before at .282/.326/.474 - None the less his numbers at age 23 are nearly identical to Viciedo's

Dave Parker 377 PA - again, he was instead batting in the minors

Jermaine Dye - .252/.286/.394, 4.55 K/BB, 4.77 PA/K, ages 22-24 ('05 WS MVP) - 591 PA (close)

Ryan Howard -
- He was 24 in his first season with 42 PA. Exactly. While Viciedo was playing in the majors, Howard was wiffing at a higher rate AT A-Level Minor league BALL. If a player fails at the major league level at age 23, certainly a player who hasn't reached AA and struck out 30% of the time IN A-BALL shouldn't have success at the majors either.

Last edited by TheVulture; 02-14-2013 at 01:57 PM.
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  #74  
Old 02-14-2013, 01:29 PM
dickallen15 dickallen15 is offline
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Originally Posted by russ99 View Post
Dayan Viciedo - .255/.300/.444, 4.28 K/BB, 4.52 PA/K - 762 PA after his age 23 season.

Willie Stargell - .243/.290/.428, 4.47 K/BB, 3.85 PA/K (HOF) - 362 PA

Andre Dawson - .253/.299/.442, 4.26 K/BB, 5.15 PA/K (HOF) - 1300+ PA, but was ROY the year before at .282/.326/.474

Dave Parker - .282/.322/.409, 5.30 K/BB, 4.40 PA/K ('78 MVP) - 377 PA

Jermaine Dye - .252/.286/.394, 4.55 K/BB, 4.77 PA/K, ages 22-24 ('05 WS MVP) - 591 PA (close)

Ryan Howard - horrid 3.63 PA/K at age 23...in high A ball. ('06 MVP)
- He was 24 in his first season with 42 PA.

Nice try.

Viciedo's comparables through age 23 are: (source: Baseball Reference)
  1. Bernie Carbo (974)
  2. Jim King (974)
  3. Tommie Agee (972)
  4. Phil Plantier (970)
  5. Mike Marshall (969)
Real scary hitters there...
Through age 23. Bernie Carbo put up a 1.000 OPS as a 22 year old and was second in ROY voting. Plantier hit 34 homers and drove in 100 as a 24 year old, so Viciedo should be pretty good next year. Tommie Agee was Rookie of the Year when he was 23, with the White Sox. Mike Marshall made the All Star team as a 24 year old. Of course you also didn't want to go 2 more names down the list because those were Logan Morrison and Carlos Gonzalez.

You're embarrassing yourself.

Last edited by dickallen15; 02-14-2013 at 01:49 PM.
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  #75  
Old 02-14-2013, 01:39 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by russ99 View Post

Viciedo's comparables through age 23 are: (source: Baseball Reference)
  1. Bernie Carbo (974)
  2. Jim King (974)
  3. Tommie Agee (972)
  4. Phil Plantier (970)
  5. Mike Marshall (969)
Real scary hitters there...
George Foster comparable player age 23: Jim Gosger
Matt Williams: Pedro Garcia
Joe Carter: Jeffrey Hammonds
Jermaine Dye: Lee Walls
Paul Konerko: Bernie Carbo
Edgar Martinez(Borderline HOFer career .933 OPS), age 28: Dave Stapleton, career OPS .707. I'm pretty sure this is the first time Dave Stapleton has been mentioned in the same sentence as Edgar Martinez.

Last edited by TheVulture; 02-14-2013 at 02:08 PM.
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