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I'm talking about the Sox, particularly, because that is the forum we are in. If the discussion were elsewhere, then it would be a different discussion (I do find PECOTA flawed, as far as full-team projections go, league-wide).
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And on the 8th day, God created churros. |
#377
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When you can't make a point, it's best to resort to hyperbole and constructing strawmen. That's what "intellectuals" do.
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#378
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2012 PECOTA had 12teams projected correctly within 5 games, had 12 teams projections off by at least 10 (including the Sox who were at 10). There were 2 right on, and 5 missed by at least 16. The average the W-L were off in the AL was 8.86, and in the NL 8.06. Overall average off by 8.43 games.
It sparks a lot of debate, but good or bad for the team you are pulling for, it's really no more accurate in the end than the posts in the preseason prediction threads. We all know which teams have the best players. If you don't have a roster full of players that have been consistently successful, PECOTA isn't going to rate you that high. Last edited by dickallen15; 02-19-2013 at 02:57 PM. |
#379
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![]() PECOTA does not project wins and losses. It projects runs scored and runs allowed. I cannot for the life of me figure out which of those two sentences you guys cannot comprehend.
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#9 2015 Obligatory Attendance/Record Tracker 1-2 LAST GAME: May 22 - Sox 3, Twins 2 NEXT GAME: June 8 - Sox vs. Astros Last edited by doublem23; 02-19-2013 at 03:03 PM. |
#380
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![]() There is no point to projections, as before the games are played, every team has a similar chance of winning the World Series. I don't know how people here can predict the Astros to lose 100 games until they do lose 100 games.
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Ridiculousness across all sports: (1) "You have no valid opinion because you never played the game." (2) "Stats are irrelevant. This guy just doesn't know how to win." |
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And then projects wins and losses. The debate was how off they have been about the White Sox. The fact is, their projection was a bit off on the White Sox last year, and there were 11 teams that they were at least as "off on their projection" as they were on the White Sox. So for the guys that want the Sox to suck, and there are a couple on here, it's really no reason to puff out their chests with pride just yet.
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Then they are converting it. This entire argument has been about how off they have been about the White Sox projected win totals.
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#384
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As has been continually noted by those, including me, who express ridicule of BP's consistently wrong guesses with regard to the Sox's record, that should not be taken as an indictment of BP as a whole. They seem to generally do exceptional work, but for whatever (not subjective, IMO) reasons, BP generally fails to properly evaluate the Sox before the season is played out, at least in its application of PECOTA.
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"I have the ultimate respect for White Sox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Red Sox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country." Jim Caple, ESPN (January 12, 2011) "We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the (bleeding) obvious is the first duty of intelligent men." — George Orwell |
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Isn't that exactly the point we're arguing? That converting PECOTA is not a very accurate system when it comes to W-L? This thread is about the BP projection for the White Sox W-L record.
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#386
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The best analogy I can think of off the top of my head are bakers. Most professional bakers measure ingredients in weight (100 grams of flour), not the volume that you're used to seeing in cookbooks designed for everyday chums like you and me, because it's just easier and more accessable for most people. The conversions are pretty commonplace, but if you're operating in the world of professional cooking, you're not using cups and tablespoons to create the recipes, only translating at the very end. Quote:
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#387
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If people knew how weather was predicted they would lose their ****.
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#389
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#390
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![]() "Nellie Fox, that little son of a gun, was always on base and was a great hit-and-run man. He sprayed hits all over." Yogi Berra in the New York Sunday News (July 12, 1970) |
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