BP Sox projection.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by TheOldRoman

Babe Ruth in his prime was probably 100 pounds less than Prince Fielder now. Of course, he didn't have nearly the muscle Prince does, but he was three inches taller. Cecil Fielder was four inches taller than Prince, was in far better shape and he still put up his last decent season at age 32 before leaving the game at 34. Fernando Valenzuela, Bartolo Colon, Alex Fernandez and Bobby Jenks all spent a good amount of time on the DL with strained fat. In basketball, Shaq took 2-3 years of dominance away from his career by spending his prime 50 pounds overweight.

Look, I am not saying that Cabrera and Fielder are going to hit .200 after a Fear-and-Loathing-in-a-Las-Vegas-Seafood-Buffet binge fest, but the fact exists that they are overweight, they are putting extra strain on their bodies, and it could catch up to them via injury or a slow decline. Add in the fact that Cabrera has noted alcohol problems, and he could have a relapse which cost him time or causes him to slump.

Cabrera isn't even overweight...so I don't know why you keep adding him to the equation. As for his alcohol problems in a few offseasons, if it does catch up with him, it'll be the first time. Look...I despise the guy. He's a drunk and a wife beater. I think he belongs in jail. But there's no reason to believe he isn't the strong favorite for next year's MVP.

And I'm going to assume you don't know much about Prince Fielder, but he's actually a really limber fellow who eats a much healthier diet than probably every other major leaguer in baseball. Some people are just larger than others.

[SI1020]

Originally Posted by dickallen15

Actually, despite what you think you know, and your past indicates that it is far less than you believe, playing the games does matter. 2 teams BP projected to finish in last place in their respective divisions in the AL last year made the playoffs. Washington was projected to finish 4th, St.Louis 3rd, SF was projected to finish 2nd. BP had the White Sox finishing behind Cleveland, and these were projections that came out at the end of spring training. And I'm no BP hater. I buy it every year.

It doesn't matter. Just like in religion, politics, science, the arts, you name it. Dogma trumps all. It doesn't matter if tangible evidence or reality defies the dogma, you must believe. You must accept. I just got finished reading a long article about the archaeologists and other researchers who fought a decades long battle to prove that Clovis people were not the original inhabitants of the Americas. It turns out they were right. The Saber people have to a large degree overturned the traditionalists, in large part I think because traditional ways of evaluating players often left a lot to be desired. Unfortunately in life the cure is often worse than the ailment. Believe me I love stats. I posted on another board my lifelong experiences with demographics and other statistical metrics but thankfully will spare you and not do that here. If BP is the gold standard then it is fools gold. A heretic I will remain.

[dickallen15]

Originally Posted by blandman

Cabrera isn't even overweight...so I don't know why you keep adding him to the equation. As for his alcohol problems in a few offseasons, if it does catch up with him, it'll be the first time. Look...I despise the guy. He's a drunk and a wife beater. I think he belongs in jail. But there's no reason to believe he isn't the strong favorite for next year's MVP.

And I'm going to assume you don't know much about Prince Fielder, but he's actually a really limber fellow who eats a much healthier diet than probably every other major leaguer in baseball. Some people are just larger than others.

First off, Cabrera is overweight. Secondly, Prince was a vegetarian. That lasted a couple of weeks. Eventually the extra weight catches up to you. Maybe they will drop some pounds. Tony Gwynn got fatter and fatter and still was able to hit, but had a tough time staying healthy enough to play, missing 20-40 games a season his last 10 years or so.
If Prince got his genes from his father, he should have a couple of productive seasons left, then fall off a cliff. Cecil was hefty, but would look like Chris Sale standing next to his son.

[TheOldRoman]

Originally Posted by blandman

And I'm going to assume you don't know much about Prince Fielder, but he's actually a really limber fellow who eats a much healthier diet than probably every other major leaguer in baseball. Some people are just larger than others.

And I'm going to assume you heard one quote about Fielder and based your opinion off of it. He became a vegetarian in 2008, and that storyline has kept going. However, he said last spring that him being a vegetarian "lasted about three months." Even is he were still a vegetarian, they can eat all the deep-fried cheese and butter croissants they want. Chances are a 300 pound vegetarian is not eating any better than a 200 pound omnivore. And yes, Prince is very limber and athletic for his size, but the fact that he can't stay on the right side of 260 (or even 300) means that he probably isn't going to keep playing well for very long.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by Chez

But if you're not going to show up to the ballpark simply because BP predicts a bad season for your team, then I've got no answer.

I don't think anyone has made that claim. People just like the stats stuff because it's an interesting way to mix hobbies like math and sports. I didn't really need PECOTA to tell me on paper, the Sox don't look that great, but even the most ardent sabremetrics guy will tell you that what's printed on paper only matters to the page's edge and that there's a lot of stuff that happens on the field that can't, and maybe shouldn't, be quantified.

[DumpJerry]

Originally Posted by blandman

You didn't make one. You only claimed to make one on another board. Spit it out if you want people to believe you.

Go to the PI Board. I can't post it here because of the rules.


Oh, I don't care if people "believe" or not since we're talking about an opinion of mine and not a factual statement by me. There is nothing to "believe." I know that distinction does not exist in your world.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by dickallen15

First off, Cabrera is overweight. Secondly, Prince was a vegetarian. That lasted a couple of weeks. Eventually the extra weight catches up to you. Maybe they will drop some pounds. Tony Gwynn got fatter and fatter and still was able to hit, but had a tough time staying healthy enough to play, missing 20-40 games a season his last 10 years or so.
If Prince got his genes from his father, he should have a couple of productive seasons left, then fall off a cliff. Cecil was hefty, but would look like Chris Sale standing next to his son.

I don't think Cabrera is overweight. There is a tremendous difference between big and overweight.

Prince still eats healthy. He was vegetarian for 3 months and then stopped. But he's mostly a whole foods, plant based diet. He just can't claim to be vegetarian because he does eat some meat.

[spawn]

Originally Posted by blandman

I don't think Cabrera is overweight. There is a tremendous difference between big and overweight.

Prince still eats healthy. He was vegetarian for 3 months and then stopped. But he's mostly a whole foods, plant based diet. He just can't claim to be vegetarian because he does eat some meat.

So you follow him around and watch what he eats? You've studied his diet plan? Riiiiiiiiight.....

[blandman]

Originally Posted by spawn

So you follow him around and watch what he eats? You've studied his diet plan? Riiiiiiiiight.....

ACTUALLY, I attended a talk in which he was on a panel. Us veg-heads stick together.

[dickallen15]

Originally Posted by blandman

I don't think Cabrera is overweight. There is a tremendous difference between big and overweight.

Prince still eats healthy. He was vegetarian for 3 months and then stopped. But he's mostly a whole foods, plant based diet. He just can't claim to be vegetarian because he does eat some meat.

First off, I doubt what you typed is true, secondly, he can eat tree bark and grass or double quarter pounders every meal, the bottom line is both Cabera and Prince are very heavy and the toll that takes on your joints and other body parts will catch up to them at some point. They have to run around for a living.

[spawn]

Originally Posted by blandman

ACTUALLY, I attended a talk in which he was on a panel. Us veg-heads stick together.

And when did you attend this panel? Was it before or after he stopped being a veg-head?

[TheOldRoman]

Originally Posted by blandman

I don't think Cabrera is overweight. There is a tremendous difference between big and overweight.

Prince still eats healthy. He was vegetarian for 3 months and then stopped. But he's mostly a whole foods, plant based diet. He just can't claim to be vegetarian because he does eat some meat.

Yes, some people are just larger. People have different metabolisms. Sometimes genetics are a bitch. However, there is no way in hell you can convince me that a Prince eats properly. As a professional athlete who undoubtedly works out often just to keep the proper muscles and stamina to play pro baseball, he's gotta be sneaking some eclaires on the side. It's pretty much impossible for a guy in his 20s to eat well, work out regularly and still be 300 pounds. So, either Prince doesn't work out at all (unlikely), or he doesn't eat nearly as well as you think.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by TheOldRoman

Yes, some people are just larger. People have different metabolisms. Sometimes genetics are a bitch. However, there is no way in hell you can convince me that a Prince eats properly. As a professional athlete who undoubtedly works out often just to keep the proper muscles and stamina to play pro baseball, he's gotta be sneaking some eclaires on the side. It's pretty much impossible for a guy in his 20s to eat well, work out regularly and still be 300 pounds. So, either Prince doesn't work out at all (unlikely), or he doesn't eat nearly as well as you think.

WELL, I can't say I wouldn't doubt it. He's certainly not as strict as someone like me. But he's not 300 pounds because of eating bad food either. He's 300 pounds because of a combination of diet as well as a ridiculous amount of muscle.

[TheOldRoman]

Originally Posted by blandman

WELL, I can't say I wouldn't doubt it. He's certainly not as strict as someone like me. But he's not 300 pounds because of eating bad food either. He's 300 pounds because of a combination of diet as well as a ridiculous amount of muscle.

What purpose does the large, round, soft mass of muscle around his midsection serve? C'mon man. We're not talking about Julius Peppers being 290 pounds of solid muscle. Prince didn't get to be 300 pounds by lifting weights.

[Nellie_Fox]

Originally Posted by blandman

He's 300 pounds because of a combination of diet as well as a ridiculous amount of muscle.

Oh, so that's muscle I see flapping up and down all over his torso when he runs? Got it.