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View Poll Results: Should Adam Dunn be dumped?
YES! 45 37.19%
Only if they can save money or get prospects in a trade. 41 33.88%
Only if there is someone better they can play 22 18.18%
No 5 4.13%
Pass the churros 8 6.61%
Voters: 121. You may not vote on this poll

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  #16  
Old 06-03-2013, 03:12 PM
TaylorStSox TaylorStSox is online now
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What is his projected WAR and how does WAR relate to salary? On average, how many millions is a "win" worth?
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I'm not counting this homerun or his 3 RBI from today's game because of the game situation. I'm not counting his pinch hit solo homerun in a blowout win in Colorado. In my book, Crede has 2 less home runs than his statistics show, 4 less RBI, and one less walk (the one where he pinch hit for Uribe after coming in with a 3-0 count and taking one pitch).
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  #17  
Old 06-03-2013, 03:25 PM
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Originally Posted by TaylorStSox View Post
What is his projected WAR and how does WAR relate to salary? On average, how many millions is a "win" worth?
This presupposes that WAR is a valid statistic when taken to a level of "millions per win".

There are years one more win would be worth millions of dollars because it would mean the difference between the playoffs, millions in additional revenue and a shot at glory or going golfing.

I don't want to turn this into a stats discussion but WAR is one of those stats which has never been tested empirically. No one has actually tried to field their AAA team or a team of nothing but minimum wage players to see how it would work out. I suspect it would win a lot less than 60 games if someone did, but I have no evidence for that either.

Now there are years when 60 wins isn't that big a deal or even 50. It won't mean a thing for the Marlins long term if they lose 10 more wins of their end of year total, but man 10 less wins for the Yankees this year would be huge.

It's all subjective and it's all perspective and again, WAR is completely untested at it's extremes...
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  #18  
Old 06-03-2013, 03:32 PM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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Good luck finding a trading partner or anyone willing to pay him more than the major league minimum- of these current contenders- I don't see a candidate- not for a .160 hitter-

AL-BoSox, NYY, TB, BALT, DET, CLEV, TEX, OAK

NL-ATL, CINN, PITT, StL, ARIZ, SF, COL
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  #19  
Old 06-03-2013, 03:33 PM
TaylorStSox TaylorStSox is online now
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
This presupposes that WAR is a valid statistic when taken to a level of "millions per win".

There are years one more win would be worth millions of dollars because it would mean the difference between the playoffs, millions in additional revenue and a shot at glory or going golfing.

I don't want to turn this into a stats discussion but WAR is one of those stats which has never been tested empirically. No one has actually tried to field their AAA team or a team of nothing but minimum wage players to see how it would work out. I suspect it would win a lot less than 60 games if someone did, but I have no evidence for that either.

Now there are years when 60 wins isn't that big a deal or even 50. It won't mean a thing for the Marlins long term if they lose 10 more wins of their end of year total, but man 10 less wins for the Yankees this year would be huge.

It's all subjective and it's all perspective and again, WAR is completely untested at it's extremes...
I understand all of that and wasn't questioning the validity if the stat. It wasn't intended to be debated. I was curious about how stats would reflect whether its better to sink the cost or to keep playing him. Do stat guys think it would be better to dump a guy that will end up around .180/30/85 and continue to pay him? Or, keep him and try get some value back for the money based on his production? How much money is his production worth?
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  #20  
Old 06-03-2013, 03:46 PM
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Originally Posted by TaylorStSox View Post
I understand all of that and wasn't questioning the validity if the stat. It wasn't intended to be debated. I was curious about how stats would reflect whether its better to sink the cost or to keep playing him. Do stat guys think it would be better to dump a guy that will end up around .180/30/85 and continue to pay him? Or, keep him and try get some value back for the money based on his production? How much money is his production worth?
IMO, given the Sox are a lot closer to the Marlins' season than the Yankees this year, I don't really think it matters much. No one is going to go to the park to see Adam Dunn and if those are his stats he won't make the difference in some dramatic second half surge to lead the team to the playoffs.

If the team, as I suspect, finishes out of the playoffs and at best around .500 for the season, Dunn being her or not doesn't really matter. If it means rushing some prospect to the majors and might cause that prospect to struggle long term with the jump then they should eat the salary and continue playing Dunn to let the kid mature naturally.
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  #21  
Old 06-03-2013, 04:19 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Bench him v. LHP. Drop him in the lineup. Hope he improves average and OPS against RHP to where another team will trade for him.
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  #22  
Old 06-03-2013, 07:47 PM
eastchicagosoxfan eastchicagosoxfan is offline
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Originally Posted by Madvora View Post
I don't understand the argument of "we have no one to replace him with."
Replace what? He's an automatic out. Do you really think every player in our minor league organization is incapable of hitting above .160 in the major leagues?
Your statement sums up my opinion. He's getting paid and doing nothing other than taking up a roster spot. Every pro sports organization except the Cubs puts winning first. By keeping Dunn, the Sox team says $$ trumps winning. Every team makes mistakes. Cut him and move on.
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  #23  
Old 06-03-2013, 07:50 PM
gobears1987 gobears1987 is online now
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I'd rather see him benched permanently until he gets his lazy ass into shape.
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  #24  
Old 06-03-2013, 09:34 PM
mahagga73 mahagga73 is offline
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Only if there is someone better to play . Nobody wants that contract so that is a mute point. He is one of the few Sox who can actually drive in a run.
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  #25  
Old 06-03-2013, 10:08 PM
34rancher 34rancher is online now
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Originally Posted by sox1970 View Post
Let's put it this way...if the Sox announced they released Dunn and just ate the final $25 mil left, I would be happy I don't have to watch him anymore.

That said, it's not very likely this season. Maybe a year from now if he's a bust after two months, maybe they dump him with four months left on his contract.

One thing is for sure- Adam Dunn will never play a playoff game in a Sox uniform, so the sooner he's gone, the better.
Um, don't you mean Adam will never play in an MLB playoff game in his career? Wow, how the masses have turned. I got roasted, ridiculed, and told how little I knew for saying that the day we signed him. As kids, we often played right field out, Adam is the Designated Out. Hated this signing when it was suggested, hate it more now.
And for people saying only if someone else is better, my question is who else is worse? You could bat our coaching staff at the age they are and produce as much as he is. Gimme a break and cut bait.

Edit: On the bright side, notice every team he has played for got better immediately after he left. So we have that to look forward to in 2 years.
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  #26  
Old 06-03-2013, 10:22 PM
mahagga73 mahagga73 is offline
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Originally Posted by 34rancher View Post
Um, don't you mean Adam will never play in an MLB playoff game in his career? Wow, how the masses have turned. I got roasted, ridiculed, and told how little I knew for saying that the day we signed him. As kids, we often played right field out, Adam is the Designated Out. Hated this signing when it was suggested, hate it more now.
And for people saying only if someone else is better, my question is who else is worse? You could bat our coaching staff at the age they are and produce as much as he is. Gimme a break and cut bait.

Edit: On the bright side, notice every team he has played for got better immediately after he left. So we have that to look forward to in 2 years.
That's kind of coincidental these teams got better when he left. The Red's and Nat's were stockpiling talent from the draft and he became expendable. I think maybe he is a convenient scapegoat for the job the Sox have not done putting a good lineup out there this year. Yeah, he isn't good, but who is on this team? Saying just get rid of him is easy when you aren't writing the check. Nobody disputes he has not lived up to the money by a longshot , but most Sox fans were positive about the signing and a lot of the angst is 20/20 hindsight . Who knew his skills were declining at this rate, there was nothing in his performance at the time to suggest this big of a dropoff . He was about 31 or so, not 37. It was just another Sox signing gone wrong. Due to the poor job the front office has done developing positional talent, I don't know what they could possibly come up with that is a better option at this point. There is little chance he is going to get released making that kind of $$$. Your being kind of dramatic saying anyone could replace him. He is on pace for 30 HR's and a 100 RBI's or so. The average and strikeouts are the amazingly bad part. Like I said before, the fact the rest the lineup is so useless is magnifying his shortcomings.

Last edited by mahagga73; 06-03-2013 at 10:30 PM.
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  #27  
Old 06-03-2013, 10:33 PM
BigKlu59 BigKlu59 is offline
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Hey, If we can get a box of popcorn and/or a bag of sunflower seeds and a kid for "Wizzer", I say go for it.. When it rains, it pours... Shame its come down to this....

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  #28  
Old 06-03-2013, 10:41 PM
Boondock Saint Boondock Saint is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Madvora View Post
I don't understand the argument of "we have no one to replace him with."
Replace what? He's an automatic out. Do you really think every player in our minor league organization is incapable of hitting above .160 in the major
leagues?
Are they all capable of hitting 40 HR's, too? He's better.
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  #29  
Old 06-03-2013, 11:04 PM
BigKlu59 BigKlu59 is offline
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Originally Posted by Boondock Saint View Post
Are they all capable of hitting 40 HR's, too? He's better.
Sounds like we are settling for something of the Dave Kingman variety. IE..Watching your team lose, waiting for a moonshot between air-conditioning the crowd for 3 AB's or more... At this point he's not even able to perform to the novelty status the Barker is trying to sell in front of the curtain... Step right up !!!! Checked the league HR leaders and dont even see a mention of Mighty Casey..

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  #30  
Old 06-04-2013, 12:01 AM
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Can I change my vote? I'd pay to watch him pack his bags.
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