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  #76  
Old 06-21-2013, 08:14 PM
Jurr Jurr is offline
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Originally Posted by dickallen15 View Post
Not really. If you plan on a total rebuild, with the current state of the Sox system, you are looking at 5 years of meaningless games. The question is where will Sale be physically and performance wise when you are ready to compete again? It would be Silly having him on the roster if there was no chance to win. Every pitcher is a ticking time bomb. Especially him. I hope the Sox re-tool, and not re-build. The pitching is there to compete if the hang on to it, and they should be in decent shape to pick up a couple of hitters, but if tearing it down is what they decide to do, trading Sale is probably the most logical move they could make. Projecting any pitcher 5 or 6 years from now is difficult, Chris Sale especially.
I totally agree with this sentiment. Sale, if the trade is impactful, should be dealt. Sell high, buy low.
AJ, Contreras, Garcia, and Dye were acquired for very little, as it pertains to trades or free agent deals. Thornton was another such acquisition.

If you trade a guy like Dunn or Peavy, the value isn't there for teams. You're selling low. Trading a guy like Sale is where you make headway.
Instead of getting some middling prospects and financial flexibility, you get bona fide baseball players. That is what the Sox need.

There are no studs on this roster. If you can trade your one strong player for possibly 2 or 3 really good players, you make that move.

Sale's contract makes the market even more demanding.
Stupid fans won't get it if he's moved. The smarter folk will understand it clearly.

This team needs a young core of talent like that of Cincy or Pittsburgh. You can easily begin augmenting that talent with creative free agent deals, especially with a team like the Sox that can actually spend some money.

Getting that young core is where the team should begin. Getting MLB ready prospects or young current players is exactly what trading a guy like Sale would do.
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  #77  
Old 06-21-2013, 09:36 PM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Sale isn't a "might" get injured case. Sale is a "probably" will get injured case. You can disagree with that all you want, and you have the right to, but that doesn't change the fact that the "book" on Sale is that the risk is more on the expect it to happen side of things.
Most pitchers get saddled with injuries sometime in their career, that is not any sort of epiphany. However, there's no way to know if Sale will run into arm or shoulder problems 1, 2, 3, 5 or 10 years from now. Trading players away on speculative, non-scientific hunches is not good business. I'm not saying Sale won't get injured in his career, but this book you speak of is closer to a conspiracy theory than a history textbook.
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  #78  
Old 06-21-2013, 09:38 PM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
Somebody has to explain to me why anyone actually thinks the Sox are going to do the complete tear down and rebuild model?
Because it gives us something to talk about other than the forgettable play on the field right now?
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  #79  
Old 06-21-2013, 09:56 PM
Stanley Stanley is offline
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Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
Trading players away on speculative, non-scientific hunches is not good business. I'm not saying Sale won't get injured in his career, but this book you speak of is closer to a conspiracy theory than a history textbook.
You're kidding yourself if you think that the only people who speculate on this kind of thing are fans on message boards. It's just business, plain and simple. You don't need a degree in science to see that Sale has already had arm problems, and to the surprise of no one, really. All trades are speculative and are partly based on un-scientific elements.

What is the conspiracy theory?
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  #80  
Old 06-21-2013, 09:59 PM
PalehosePlanet PalehosePlanet is offline
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Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
Most pitchers get saddled with injuries sometime in their career, that is not any sort of epiphany. However, there's no way to know if Sale will run into arm or shoulder problems 1, 2, 3, 5 or 10 years from now. Trading players away on speculative, non-scientific hunches is not good business. I'm not saying Sale won't get injured in his career, but this book you speak of is closer to a conspiracy theory than a history textbook.
Absolutely right. The Dodgers once upon a time traded a young pitcher by the name of Pedro Martinez because he weighed 150 lbs.; they figured his slight frame could not survive the rigors of pitching 30+ starts a season, that he was bound to break down.

Trying to predict pitching injuries is ridiculous. Per every guy with a funky delivery encountering arm trouble there is a guy with an ideal delivery with arm trouble.
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  #81  
Old 06-21-2013, 10:07 PM
Stanley Stanley is offline
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Scouts and other people employed by MLB speculate on potential arm problems with pitchers all the time. It's not an exact science obviously, but it's not ridiculous either.

What is so hard to grasp about that?
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  #82  
Old 06-21-2013, 10:08 PM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by Stanley View Post
You're kidding yourself if you think that the only people who speculate on this kind of thing are fans on message boards. It's just business, plain and simple. You don't need a degree in science to see that Sale has already had arm problems, and to the surprise of no one, really. All trades are speculative and are partly based on un-scientific elements.

What is the conspiracy theory?
There is no conspiracy theory. I was trying to point out that saying Sale will get injured is a guess and not a fact.

Regardless, we're all just killing time with this subject. There's not been any sort of talk from the front-office about trading Sale and that will probably continue.
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  #83  
Old 06-21-2013, 10:11 PM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by Stanley View Post
Scouts and other people employed by MLB speculate on potential arm problems with pitchers all the time. It's not an exact science obviously, but it's not ridiculous either.

What is so hard to grasp about that?
You're right, but I think what I and other are trying to say is that speculating that a player might get injured is a dangerous road to take.

I remember a few years ago that Gio Gonzalez was considered an injury risk and teams would be crazy to keep him around for long. 826 innings later, I wish we still had him.
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  #84  
Old 06-21-2013, 10:47 PM
Stanley Stanley is offline
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I suppose if you are basing your opinion on this matter on the completely unscientific basis of: "well one time this guy you said was gonna get hurt didn't so what the heck!", then you would of course arrive at the conclusion you are apparently stuck under.
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  #85  
Old 06-21-2013, 11:07 PM
cards press box cards press box is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
Somebody has to explain to me why anyone actually thinks the Sox are going to do the complete tear down and rebuild model?
I don't think that the Sox are going to go through a complete overhaul. I do think that they may move some veterans and players whose contracts end after 2013.

I would list the players who may be on the trading block this way:

Likely to go

1. Jesse Crain (contract expires after 2013)
2. Matt Thornton (contract expires after 2013)

May go

1. Jake Peavy (contract expires after 2014, option for 2015)

Peavy's injury makes it less likely that he is dealt but if he comes back by late July, it is possible. Dealing Peavy could net the Sox some young talent. And, in any event, the Sox rotation as soon as next year could be:

Chris Sale
John Danks
Hector Santiago
Jose Quintana
Erik Johnson

2. Paul Konerko (contract expires after 2013)

I don't think the Sox will bring Konerko back in 2014. And he could still help a contender down the stretch. He would have to approve a deal but he might to help the club and to make the playoffs one more time in what could be his last year.

Might go but don't be surprised if they stay

1. Jeff Keppinger (contract expires after 2015)

Sox would love to deal him and he might help a contender. I only see this happening, though, if the Sox make another team take Keppinger if they want Peavy or Rios.

2. Alex Rios (contract expires in 2014, option for 2015)

Sox might deal him but opposing club would have to make a great offer. I don't see the Sox trading Rios for anything less than top value.

3. Alexei Ramirez (contract expires after 2015, I think)

I don't really see the Sox moving him, as they don't have another SS ready to go unless you count Carlos Sanchez. But, again, if the Sox are bowled over with an offer, they could move in another direction and find another SS for a while. Heck, the A's seem to do that every season and they seem to do OK.

4. Adam Dunn (contract expires after 2014)

Before anyone starts laughing or rolls their eyes, consider this: by mid-to-late July, Dunn could easily be batting .210 with 25 HR and 60 RBI. And that might enough to make him tradeable.

I am not saying that the Sox wouldn't have to eat some of the contract but they might be able to deal Dunn to a team that desperately needs left handed power. And if the Sox got a low level prospect and some salary relief, they should declare victory and cut their losses on this guy.
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  #86  
Old 06-21-2013, 11:42 PM
gosox41 gosox41 is offline
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Originally Posted by Golden Sox View Post
When the season started I thought the team might contend like they did in 2012. Up until 3 weeks ago the pitching staff held things together. The hitting and defense weren't any good. Now the entire team (pitching, hitting and defense) has collapsed. If there's any light at the end of the tunnel, I sure don't see it. It will be curious to see what Hahn does. I should point out also that everybody I have talked to tells me JR has no intention of selling the White Sox now.
I am still trying to understand how a team of mostly veterans can all have down years at one time (almost all) and do it for half a season.

If you believe in reversion to the mean, then we are in for a lot of W's the second half.

In reality, this team is done and it's time to starting trading for prospects, dumping salary so we will have more money to spend going forward on FA's and, draft better.


Bob
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  #87  
Old 06-21-2013, 11:49 PM
gosox41 gosox41 is offline
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Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
There is no conspiracy theory. I was trying to point out that saying Sale will get injured is a guess and not a fact.

Regardless, we're all just killing time with this subject. There's not been any sort of talk from the front-office about trading Sale and that will probably continue.
That's because our front office may be inept. Sale is the biggest bargaining chip we have. If, as it is looking, it is going to take at least 3-4 years to rebuild this thing, then why keep him? So maybe when he is in the last year if his contract (and hopefully healthy) we may content.

Now before some fool goes off and says that GoSox41 is an idiot (already been said numerous times) because the Sox should dump Sale. I did not say that. A dump would be us giving away Adam Dunn for nothing. Sale will come at a high cost. Sure while prospects can turn into suspects, right now the Sox have neither. If this team wants to rebuild and contend in the 3-4 yr time horizon and not the 5+ year then we need some highly rated prospects. Sale can get us that.


As far as I'm concerned, just about anyone and everyone on this roster is fair game. Some have higher prices for various reasons. But for the most part, they can trade anyone of these guys and I wouldn't be sad. I would be pissed, however, if they didn't get fair value.


Bob
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  #88  
Old 06-21-2013, 11:51 PM
amsteel amsteel is offline
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This season's shot so I have no problem giving Sale and Danks extra rest whenever they want/need it. There's too much time and $ invested to let them wear out on a pointless season.

Also the Sox won't move Sale since w/o him they have zero marketable players going forward. And it's not like Sale is exactly marketable. The Sox are too obsessed about their image to lose their sole star and half-personality.
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  #89  
Old 06-21-2013, 11:56 PM
gosox41 gosox41 is offline
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Originally Posted by SCCWS View Post
I don't have a problem trading Sale. However, I think your logic is wrong. If the "book" on Sale says a career ending/altering injury is coming, then other teams are not going to value him that high. He will be looked at as a short term solution and will not return the value of a Number 1 starter. So the Sox are better holding on to him and if he is till pitching effectively in 2-3 years the "book" will have a different ending and his value will be much higher.
To look at it another way, Sale needs to have two more years like 2012 to jsutify his contract. Forgetting about the give up of free agency, arbitration, etc. If I'm a team trying to win now and have deep pockets (and need pitching), I can easily justfiy Sale today as that team's GM.

How much would it cost on the free agent market to go and get a Sale of 2012? You're probably looking at $18MM per year for 5-6 years. If Sale's 2013-2014 mimic his 2012 and then he blows his arm out the winter of 2014--you essentially paid him $30MM over 4.5 yrs instead of overpaying a free agent who you can owe 3 times taht money too.

At least that's how I would justify it if I were a team like the Yankees or Rangers.


Bob
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  #90  
Old 06-22-2013, 01:04 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
There is no conspiracy theory. I was trying to point out that saying Sale will get injured is a guess and not a fact.
But the guess isn't coming from you or me, it's coming from scouts and sports medicine professionals. Yeah, it's still a guess, but it's based on science. Not a whim.
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